Fanduel 1/1/19 NBA Picks

Well I hope everyone enjoyed their New Year's Eve/Burning Money with AD night! Like many people, I was in the red last night due to exposure to AD, but thankfully had plenty of exposure to Harden-KAT lineups that it wasn't a total loss. Still looking for a big cash, the highest I've placed in tourneys is 27th this year, but I'll keep grinding to try and get a top 10 soon. As I've changed some of the stats that I'm providing, one of the variables I'm looking at is USG when certain players are out. I'll be providing those statistics even if someone is GTD so that the information is there if the player can't go. Obviously with all NBA games, you generally won't know until tip about availability so I wanted to provide access to that information if a player is out. Let's try to find some value in tonight's slate:

PG

Ben Simmons ($9800) - Min 34.1 - O/U 233 - RPMW 4.13 - USG 21.6 - USG INJ 23.3
Damian Lillard ($9200) - Min 35.7 - O/U 231 - RPMW 5.64 - USG 30.1 - USG INJ N/A
De'Aaron Fox ($9100) - Min 34.6 - O/U 231 - RPMW 4.25 - USG 25 - USG INJ 27.2

Embiid is questionable and PHI laid an absolute egg the last time out so I expect a better showing from Simmons regardless of if Embiid plays. Lillard and Fox are both in good spots with a likely shootout @SAC. Fox gets a little boost in usage with Bagley out, but I'm expecting 5x from both guys tonight.

Value Plays

T.J. McConnell ($4300) - Min 22.1 - O/U 233 - RPMW .53 - USG 14 - USG INJ 16
Dante Exum ($3900) - Min 17.5 - O/U 211 - RPMW .55 - USG 21.4 - USG INJ 23.1
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5700) - Min 33.2 - O/U 218 - RPMW 1.18 - USG 24.2 - USG INJ 30.1

McConnell has been getting consistent 20-25 minutes per night regardless of Embiid playing or not. He's a good 5x candidate. Exum is clearly only a play if you think Rubio is going to be out. Rubio is probable so I would lean more towards McConnell. Mudiay is a go tonight and his usage will improve immensely if Kanter isn't a go. It may be a revenge game anyway against his former team, which means I'll have some exposure to him. You can add Fred VanVleet to this list, but the O/U is low and he's not as good against good teams.

SG

Jimmy Butler ($8500) - Min 35.5 - O/U 233 - RPMW 4.28 - USG 23.1 USG INJ 32.3
Khris Middleton ($7600) - Min 32.9 - O/U 218 - RPMW 3.53 - USG 24.2 USG INJ N/A
Donovan Mitchell ($7500) - Min 34.4 - O/U 211 - RPMW 3 - USG 30.5 USG INJ 29.2

It's hard to make sense of Butler since he arrived in PHI. It feels like he's truly pacing himself until the playoffs. If Embiid doesn't play, his usage explodes. I'll have some exposure given Embiid is questionable. Middleton is in a good spot as DET is bad against SGs (DvP: 25th) and he's coming off of two games that would be 5x at this price point. Mitchell has had a down year and @TOR seems like a tough matchup and even if Rubio doesn't play, Mitchell's usage stays the same.

Value Plays

Iman Shumpert ($3700) - Min 27.5 - O/U 231 - RPMW 1.55 - USG 14.9 - USG INJ 16.5
CJ McCollum ($6100) - Min 34.6 - O/U 231 - RPMW 2.52 - USG 26.3 - USG INJ N/A
Allonzo Trier ($3500) - Min 18.8 - O/U 218 - RPMW -.82 - USG 21.3 - USG INJ 16.8

I wonder what ownership will be for Shump who has an excellent price point for this matchup. Trier to me is an ownership pivot from Shump expecting DEN to blowout NY. McCollum's price tag will create high ownership. Tourney plays should consider Malcolm Brogdon ($5800), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6100), Lou Williams ($6400), and Buddy Hield ($6900) as pivot plays from McCollum.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12400) - Min 34.6 - O/U 218 - RPMW 5.52 - USG 31.4 - USG INJ N/A
Kawhi Leonard ($10000) - Min 35.3 - O/U 211 - RPMW 3.81 - USG - 30.2 - USG INJ 35.1
Danilo Gallinari ($7100) - Min 31.9 - O/U 233 - RPMW 4.57 - USG - 22.7 - USG INJ N/A

Giannis has turned it on recently. Last three games point totals (67.3, 68.8, 69) which is Harden-esque. Kawhi has dumped a couple of clunkers the past two games. I thought he and TOR would shred the Bulls and they didn't. I feel like a good opponent like UTA will get his attention and effort going tonight. I'd say 4.5x is probable, but 5x to me is questionable with this line. Danilo has an accurate price point and a good line, but PHI is really good against SFs (DvP: 3rd). The implied total and his recent performance will get me to have some exposure, but limited for me.

Value Plays

Maurice Harkless ($4200) - Min 26 - O/U 231 - RPMW .68 - USG 12.2 - USG INJ N/A
Evan Turner ($3600) - Min 21.3 - O/U 231 - RPMW -.3 - USG 17 - USG INJ N/A
Juancho Hernangomez ($5600) - Min 30.24 - O/U 218 - RPMW - 2.84 - USG 13.4 - USG INJ 14.5

Keep your eye out on Gary Harris, who's coming back this week. I would expect them to hold him out until Saturday, but if he does get some burn tonight that would cut into Juancho's minutes most likely. SAC is dead last against SFs in DvP, which paired with this high O/U makes Harkless and Turner attractive. Harkless is probable and played 31 and 37 minutes the last two games played so maybe his minutes are tracking upwards. Turner feels like a nice pairing with either Giannis or Kawhi if you're looking for potential 5x from an SF2 punt.

PF

Blake Griffin ($9400) - Min 35.7 - O/U 218 - RPMW 4.01 - USG 29.4 - USG INJ 29.7
Tobias Harris ($7400) - Min 34 - O/U 233 - RPMW 3.43 - USG 23.6 - USG INJ N/A
Montrezl Harrell ($7200) - Min 26.7 - O/U 233 - RPMW 2.83 - USG 22.5 - USG INJ N/A

MIL isn't good against PFs (DvP 26th), but Griffin has been awful lately. Here's his point totals for the last four games: (26.9, 26.9, 47.8, 25.9). He put up 40.5 in his last meeting with MIL and that feels more like an accurate line for him, somewhere around 4.5x. I hate Harris and Harrell. They are the most inconsistent PFs and it is maddening. With this line and PHI being 28th against PFs, I'd bet one is going 5x tonight. Who that 5x guy is, is better left for you to determine.

Value Plays

Luke Kornet ($3800) - Min 30.1 - O/U 218 - RPMW .39 - USG 18.2 - USG INJ 20.6
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5200) - Min 31 - O/U 231 - RPMW 2.75 - USG 12.8 - USG INJ N/A
Noah Vonleh ($6200) - Min 32.7 - O/U 218 - RPMW 3.74 - USG 13.8 - USG INJ 17.9

Kornet most likely will have high ownership tonight, but he's still a good punt play. Aminu's price tag is too low with this amount of minutes, the high O/U, and SAC's inability to guard PFs (DvP: 25th). I'm expecting 5x from Aminu tonight. You can add Kevin Knox ($5800) to this list as well, but Vonleh has been more consistent recently and should get good run even if they're blown out.

C

Joel Embiid ($11000) - Min 33.7 - O/U 233 - RPMW 4.55 - USG 32.4 - USG INJ N/A
Nikola Jokic ($9900) - Min 31.9 - O/U 218 - RPMW 6.25 - USG 25.6 - USG INJ 29.5
Andre Drummond ($9700) - Min 32.5 - O/U 218 - RPMW 2.26 - USG 24.4 - USG INJ 23.8
Rudy Gobert ($9300) - Min 32.8 - O/U 211 - RPMW 5.26 - USG 17.7 - USG INJ 21.3
Jusuf Nurkic ($8700) - Min 28 - O/U 231 - RPMW 4.19 - USG 24.4 - USG INJ N/A

Embiid went through shoot around today so that's him trending toward playing, but he's still questionable. I'm staying away; maybe 5% exposure. I can't reasonably play Jokic with this spread. He hasn't deserved this price point in a while either. Back-to-back clunkers for Drummond and he only went for 31.3 in his last matchup with MIL. He can go off for 60 at any moment, but no evidence leans me toward that conclusion. Gobert has been a consistent 5x+ player at this price point the last three games. No worry about O/U because UTA is always around this line. He's in play for me. Nurkic is overpriced due to a couple of big games. He should be closer to $8000 and I think I'd be more inclined to play Willie Cauley-Stein ($7700) and save the $1000 for similar results.

Value Plays

Mike Muscala ($3600) - Min 21.1 - O/U 233 - RPMW 1.48 - USG 14.7 - USG INJ 17.8
Brook Lopez ($5400) - Min 27.7 - O/U 218 - RPMW 3.73 - USG 17.6 - USG INJ N/A
Boban Marjanovic ($3500) - Min 14.6 - O/U 233 - RPMW 1.19 - USG 25.1 - USG INJ N/A

Muscala is a good 18-25 minute rotation guy that's a solid punt play tonight. Lopez put 30.8 up against DET last time out and has been a consistent 5x at this price point the last four games. Boban is a nice pivot from Muscala in the chance that he goes 5x in limited minutes.

Good luck to everyone tonight!