Fanduel 1/13/19 NBA Picks

In the black last night, but I'm consistently in the 10-20% ROI which is a little frustrating. Looking for a big cash, but small slates are always hard to cash in. Let's see if we can find some value in tonight's slate:

PG

Stephen Curry ($10200) @DAL - 36 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - 24 DvP
Damian Lillard ($9100) @DEN - 36 min - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts - 6 DvP
Jamal Murray ($7200) vs. POR - 33 min - 217 O/U - 111 Tm pts - 15 DvP
Lonzo Ball ($7100) vs. CLE - 33 min - 220.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts - 30 DvP

Curry and Ball have good matchups tonight. I'll have exposure to both. I expect DAL to keep the game close enough to keep Curry engaged and CLE can't guard anything. Dame isn't nearly in as good a spot, particularly since DEN lost to PHO last night, so I'm expecting better effort tonight. Murray's price point feels right and I expect 4.5x here tonight.

Value Plays

Cameron Payne ($3700) @LAL - 22 min - 220.5 O/U - 105 Tm pts - 7 DvP

Slim pickings for value plays at PG tonight. Maybe you take a flier on D.J. Augustin ($4500) versus HOU, but that's purely a tourney play. Payne gets consistent minutes and is a really good roster construction play.

SG

James Harden ($12800) @ORL - 40 min - 214.5 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts - 13 DvP
Luka Doncic ($8400) vs. GS - 35 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts - 20 DvP
Klay Thompson ($8100) @DAL - 36 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - 23 DvP

I don't know if Harden is a "must play" but he's pretty close to it. Here's his FP from the last seven games (81, 64.2, 59, 53.5, 80.5, 71.5, 68.8). He's been smoking and it definitely makes it hard not to play him. The flip side is that Doncic and Thompson have also been hot. Doncic's last three games (61.6, 48.5, 44.6) and Thompson's last four games (39.9, 56.4, 32.8, 52) illustrate the tough choice tonight. I trust Doncic way more since he has the ball in his hand and Thompson has been roasting primarily bad teams.

Value Plays

Alec Burks ($4900) @LAL - 30 min - 220.5 O/U - 105 Tm pts - 29 DvP
Jordan Clarkson ($6100) @LAL - 28 min - 220.5 O/U - 105 Tm pts - 29 DvP
Andre Iguodala ($4300) @DAL - 25 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - 23 DvP

You can add the DEN duo (DvP: 16) of Malik Beasley ($3900) and Torrey Craig ($4200) and the LAL duo (DvP: 26) of Josh Hart ($5400) and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4600) if you're looking for variability. I'll be on Beasley and Craig if Barton and Harris are out tonight. Iggy shows up against better opponents and DAL at home should give them enough of a challenge. LAL consistently has done poorly against SGs and Clarkson might want to punish LAL for trading him to the lowly Cavs.

SF

Kevin Durant ($10000) @DAL - 36 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - 12 DvP
Brandon Ingram ($6900) vs. CLE - 33 min - 220.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts - 23 DvP

Durant went for 53.3 FP last time against DAL so that's encouraging as the only high-priced option at SF. Ingram has been underwhelming lately (FP last five: 21, 26.8, 45.6, 23.5, 34.3), but I'm expecting a better showing against a bad team.

Value Plays

Jake Layman ($3700) @DEN - 20 min - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts - 20 DvP
Harrison Barnes ($5700) vs. GS - 33 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts - 22 DvP

Projection sites like Cedi Osman ($4500), but I'm not all that enthused. Layman is a really good punt/5x play with Harkless out and Barnes scored 32.2 FP last time out against GS. Not a lot of flexibility overall with SF tonight so Durant may end up in a lot of my lineups.

PF

Draymond Green ($7400) @DAL - 33 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - 10 DvP
Kyle Kuzma ($7400) vs. CLE - 34 min - 220.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts - 9 DvP
Aaron Gordon ($7100) vs. HOU - 35 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - 16 DvP

The battle of inconsistency at PF tonight. I like Green the most as he had 36.5 FP last time out against DAL. Kuzma will get some consideration for his scoring, but he's been inconsistent. Here's his FP for the last three games: (24.1, 41.4, 21.5). Gordon is the most bankable minutes guy out of the three, but he's so clunker prone. Here's his FP from the last six games: (42.4, 33.5, 25.3, 28.5, 26.6, 41.9). That's a value range from 3.5 to 5.9, so tourney player only.

Value Plays

Maxi Kleber ($4000) vs. GS - 29 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts - 2 DvP
Khem Birch ($3500) vs. HOU - 13 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - 16 DvP

Kleber's minutes are starting to materialize so he's a strong play regardless of the DvP. With Bamba out Birch has emerged as a rotation guy with 17 minutes in each of the last two games. He's an excellent punt play tonight.

C

Nikola Jokic ($11000) vs. POR - 34 min - 217 O/U - 111 Tm pts - 14 DvP
Nikola Vucevic ($9400) vs. HOU - 214.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - 18 DvP
Clint Capela ($9200) @ORL - 214.5 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts - 16 DvP
Jusuf Nurkic ($9000) @DEN - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts - 13 DvP

Jokic underperformed last night, but here's his FP for the last seven games: (42, 54.8, 57.2, 46.6, 72.4, 51.6, 65.3). I really feel like DEN will be motivated tonight after last night's embarrassing loss. I expect a 4.5x showing from Vucevic, but I'm not sure that I see a big 6x night. Capela is also in a 4.5x night for me. He's generally a strong play with CP3 out so he'll have some consideration with me and a nice pivot from Vucevic. I always think Nurkic is a good play against his old team. He scored 42.7 FP in his last game against DEN and he's heated up since that game. I'll have exposure to him as well.

Value Plays

Tristan Thompson ($6100) @LAL - 32 min - 220.5 O/U - 105 Tm pts - 26 DvP
DeAndre Jordan ($7200) vs. GS - 32 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts -17 DvP
Ante Zizic ($3900) @LAL - 15 min - 220.5 O/U - 105 Tm pts - 26 DvP

DeAndre erupted for 55.1 FP the last time these two teams play so he's definitely in the mix for me. LAL is the worst team against Cs on the slate so Thompson is a strong play and Zizic has earned a rotation spot where I expect his minutes closer to 18-22 tonight.

Good luck to everyone tonight!