Fanduel 1/8/19 NBA Picks

In the black last night and just missed on a couple of guys (Nurkic instead of Vucevic; Gasol instead of Jordan; Green instead of Tucker) which would have put me in a higher cash position. Eight game slate tonight that I'm sure everyone will be lineup watching for SAC versus PHO with Booker GTD. Let's see if we can find some value:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11800) vs. MIN - 35 min - 227 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts - DvP 10
Stephen Curry ($10400) vs. NY - 37 min - 230 O/U - 124 Tm pts - DvP 19
Ben Simmons ($9500) vs. WAS - 34 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 27
Kemba Walker ($8900) @LAC - 34 min - 230 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts - DvP 24
De'Aaron Fox ($8200) @PHO - 33 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 26

Russ and Curry are DvP proof and the implied totals for both games are intriguing, but the concern is the blowout potential (OKC -8; GS -18). I'm higher on Russ than Curry, but he has to get to 59 points to get to 5x. Simmons is in a really good spot against WAS and I'm expecting to pencil in 4.5x+ for him tonight. I want to like Kemba tonight @LAC but he's been pretty underwhelming in his last four games: (FP: 35.9, 24.3, 22.1, 35.1). He got hot in the 4th against PHO his last time out, which is what is keeping him in play for me tonight. I know we'll all be watching to see if Booker plays tonight, but I think Fox is a good play regardless. I was on him last night and he could have easily had 50+ in regular minutes. He seems to trash bad teams; insert the Suns.

Value Plays

Fred VanVleet ($5400) vs. ATL - 33 min - 228.5 O/U - 121.5 Tm pts - DvP 28
De'Anthony Melton ($4500) vs. SAC - 20 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 29

I don't see a ton of value plays on the slate tonight. You might add Landry Shamet ($3500) as a pure punt and Patrick Beverly ($3800) who surely will get a lot of Kemba duty tonight. VanVleet is somewhat like Fox in that he beats up bad teams. Melton feels almost like an automatic play if Booker is out. He'd have super high ownership, but I wouldn't care, just like I didn't care that I had Napier in all of my lineups last night.

SG

Bradley Beal ($9800) @PHI - 38 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 7
Victor Oladipo ($9200) @CLE - 34 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 23
Jimmy Butler ($7900) vs. WAS - 36 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 17
Klay Thompson ($7500) vs. NY - 34 min - 230 O/U - 124 Tm pts - DvP 24

Will Butler get going after complaining about his role in the offense? Meh. He seems to be better at complaining these days than playing basketball. I like Oladipo coming off a clunker and in particular if Collison and Turner can't go. Beal's price point seems correct and I think you can pencil 4.5x and not worry about the DvP. Thompson is a pure tourney play. This is one of those games where you think, "Maybe Klay hits 10 threes tonight in three quarters."

Value Plays

Aaron Holiday ($3500) @CLE - 10 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 23
Andrew Wiggins ($6500) @OKC - 34 min - 227 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts - DvP 28
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6500) @PHO - 25 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 3

Collison and Joseph are GTD and I have a suspicion that at least one of them is going to sit for tonight. If I see them both sitting, Holiday will in most of my lineups. Wiggins is in an excellent spot tonight with Covington and Rose out and I like Bogdanovic as a low ownership pivot. You can add Josh Okogie ($4300) to this mix as well.

SF

Kevin Durant ($10300) vs. NY - 36 min - 230 O/U - 124 Tm pts - DvP 28
Kahwi Leonard ($10200) vs. WAS - 34 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 30
Paul George ($10000) vs. MIN - 36 min - 227 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts - DvP 25

I have a hard time justifying either Durant or Curry tonight with this huge line. Leonard coming off of a rest day and George seem like much stronger plays with Leonard having the stronger matchup, but I'll have exposure to both.

Value Plays

T.J. Warren ($6200) vs. SAC - 34 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 27
Derrick Jones Jr. ($3900) vs. DEN - 21 min - 210.5 O/U - 106 Tm pts - DvP 18
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5500) @CLE - 33 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 23
Jeff Green ($5800) @PHI - 34 min - O/U - Tm pts - DvP 2

Projection sites are on Otto Porter ($4900), but he's only playing 20-25 minutes, which seems pretty low for a team that's good against SFs. Green effectively plays PF and PHI is much worse against that position (DvP 25) and the minutes are consistent. Warren is in play for me if Booker can't go and Bojan is a really good play tonight if Collison and Turner don't play. Jones Jr. is a really good punt play if you pair him with Kawhi or George.

PF

John Collins ($8400) @TOR - 28 min - 228.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts - DvP 8
Tobias Harris ($7700) vs. CHA - 33 min - 230 O/U - 118.25 Tm pts - DvP 23
Domantas Sabonis ($7100) @CLE - 24 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 5

I'm not really on Collins, his price point is too high particularly for the minutes. I don't understand what terrible teams like the Hawks are doing. He should be playing 35 minutes every night with a consistent rotation. Here's his minutes the last five: (27, 25, 26, 37, 27). Harris has a good matchup tonight, but isn't clunker proof so I'll have limited exposure. Turner is questionable so I'm on Sabonis if he's out.

Value Plays

Bam Adebayo ($4400) vs. DEN - 25 min - 210 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts - DvP 16
Josh Jackson ($4100) vs. SAC - 24 min - 230.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts - DvP 22
Jonas Jerebko ($3600) vs. NY - 21 min - 232 O/U - 124.75 Tm pts - DvP 30

As I've been writing this, the line for GS versus NY has jumped two points with a decent amount of money on the Knicks with the line coming down to GS (-17.5). I think you can add Noah Vonleh ($6100) who has been a 5x machine at this price point. Jerebko is a strong play if you think GS is going to blow out NY. Jackson will get a ton of usage if Booker is out and Adebayo has solidified his rotation spot with MIA. You can add Harry Giles III ($3500) for a total punt play.

C

Joel Embiid ($11500) vs. WAS - 35 min - 228 O/U - 118.25 Tm pts - DvP 25
Karl-Anthony Towns ($11000) @OKC - 35 min - 228.5 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts - DvP 13
Nikola Jokic ($10700) @MIA - 34 min - 210 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 5

Jokic is on the back end of a back-to-back and MIA is good defensively so he's out for me. Embiid and KAT have been the heat lately. I'll have exposure to both. No larger analysis needed here. Play them.

Value Plays

Deandre Ayton ($7800) vs. SAC - 32 min - 230.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts - DvP 23
Kyle O'Quinn ($3500) @CLE - 2 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 4
Bismack Biyombo ($4000) @LAC - 10 min - 230 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts - DvP 26

If Booker is out, I'm expecting high ownership on Ayton. He might be a great play even if Booker plays. If Turner is out again O'Quinn is the best punt/5x on the board. He's a usage monster when he plays. Biyombo's minutes should be closer to 18-22 minutes and is a strong 5x play especially if Turner plays.

Good luck to everyone tonight!