Fanduel 1/9/19 NBA Picks

In the black last night and was a Kelly Oubre away from a really good night. Ten game slate tonight with another night of PHO lineup refreshing as Booker is officially doubtful. Let's try to find some value in tonight's slate:

PG

Ben Simmons ($9300) @WAS - 34 min - 228.5 O/U - 116 Tm pts - DvP 29
Damian Lillard ($9200) vs. CHI - 37 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 22
Kyrie Irving ($8400) vs. IND - 31 min - 215.5 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts - DvP 1
Mike Conley ($8400) vs. SA - 33 min - 205.5 O/U - 101.5 Tm pts - DvP 14

I really hate all these home-and-home games the NBA is trotting out. I thought Simmons would be around 4.5x+ last night and he was right on the number because of the blowout. I have no reason to suspect he won't be a good play again tonight. Dame hasn't really played to this price point lately. Here's his point totals from his last five: (34.3, 43, 37, 39.2, 23.9). None of these are 5x at this price point so you have to believe that he's going to dominate CHI to get there. I don't care about the DvP with Kyrie; there isn't a guy in the world that can guard him. I'm more concerned about his minutes after the eye injury. Only 27 last game, but this should be a close game that will keep him engaged. I'll have some exposure. Conley is out for me with that low total and decent DvP.

Value Plays

De'Anthony Melton ($4200) @DAL - 24 min - 218.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 23
J.J. Barea ($4400) vs. PHO - 20 min - 218.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts - DvP 26
Shabazz Napier ($4700) vs. ATL - 26 min - 226.5 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts - DvP 27

You could add Landry Shamet ($3500) as well after exploding yesterday in the blowout. He probably will have higher ownership and won't do what he did yesterday, but he's still a good punt play. Melton, Barea, and Napier are all in play for me. Melton obviously the most if Booker sits, but Barea is a strong play if Smith is out, which leaves Napier as a good pivot.

SG

James Harden ($12600) vs. MIL - 40 min - 228 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts - DvP 9
Bradley Beal ($10000) vs. PHI - 37 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts - DvP 7
Luka Doncic ($8100) vs. PHO - 29 min - 218.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts - DvP 3

Harden is hard not to play on any given night. Close game, large minutes, huge implied total, he's in play for me. Beal is in play for me after WAS was embarrassed last night. Limited exposure due to Harden. Doncic is GTD and he's in play for me if he plays and Smith sits. If they both play I'm out on Doncic.

Value Plays

Alec Burks ($4500) @NO - 31 min - 223.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts - DvP 27
D'Angelo Russell ($7700) vs. ATL - 32 min - 226.5 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts - DvP 30
Josh Hart ($5900) vs. DET - 36 min - 215.5 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts - DvP 26

You can add Jordan Clarkson ($5000) as another strong play in what may be a closer game than the number (NO - 14). Russell's price tag is tough, but he's coming off a terrible game (FP: 7.7!) and against a terrible defense. Hart has good value at these minutes against a bad team and Burks's minutes and usage make him a strong 6x play.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11800) @HOU - 34 min - 228 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts - DvP 12
Brandon Ingram ($6900) vs. DET - 37 min - 215.5 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts - DvP 1
T.J. Warren ($6700) @DAL - 33 min - 218.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 13

I'm not swayed by DvP for any of these guys. Ingram has been really good lately with LBJ out, Warren had a disappointing game with Booker out, but that doesn't mean he's not a good play if Booker is out. Giannis is in a good spot, but can you fit him in with Harden out there? I'll have some exposure, but not as much as with Harden.

Value Plays

Kelly Oubre ($3700) @DAL - 23 min - 218.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 13
Joe Harris ($4900) vs. ATL - 28 min - 226.5 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts -DvP 30
Harrison Barnes ($5600) vs. PHO - 31 min - 218.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts - DvP 21

I imagine after last night that Oubre will have high ownership and it's still probably warranted. Harris is a strong play against a terrible opponent. I really like Barnes if either Smith or Doncic is out. If they are both out he might be in all of my lineups.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12500) vs. CLE - 37 min - 223.5 O/U - 118.75 Tm pts - DvP 6
Blake Griffin ($9200) @LAL - 37 min - 215.5 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts - DvP 15
John Collins ($8100) @BKN - 28 min - 226.5 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts - DvP 16

AD is hard to play with this line (NO - 14) and with Harden on the board in a likely close game. I'll have minimal exposure, but will have some to make sure I don't miss an 80 point game. Griffin has been smoking. Here's his point totals from the last four games: (45.4, 56.5, 52.1, 45.8). I'll definitely have some exposure. I'm still off Collins as the minutes aren't assured and 5x seems to be a ceiling here.

Value Plays

Rodions Kurucs ($4400) vs. ATL - 24 min - 226.5 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts - DvP 28
Josh Jackson ($4800) @DAL - 24 min - 218.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 10
Richaun Holmes ($3800) @DAL - 15 min - 218.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 10

Kurucs is a really strong play that I'll have large exposure to, especially as a pivot to Jackson. Since I've been writing, Booker has been ruled out, which puts Jackson into a high usage role. Expect high ownership. I really like Holmes as a nice play getting a little more minutes with Jackson moving to the starting lineup.

C

Joel Embiid ($10800) @WAS - 35 min - 228.5 O/U - 116 Tm pts - DvP 25
Andre Drummond ($9500) @LAL - 36 min - 215.5 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts - DvP 27
Jusuf Nurkic ($9400) vs. CHI - 31 min - 208 O/U - 109 Tm pts - DvP 28
Clint Capela ($9100) vs. MIL - 37 min - 228 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts - DvP 1

Embiid was derailed last night by blowing WAS out. Hard to see that kind of blowout again, but with Harden on the slate, it's going to be hard to fit Embiid in. Drummond is in a really good position and has started to pick it up in the last two games. Nurkic had a clunker the last time out, but had been really good. The implied total concerns me and will force me to have limited exposure. I'm not concerned about the DvP for Capela. He does the same thing against everyone when CP3 is out.

Value Plays

Deandre Ayton ($7600) @DAL - 33 min - 218.5 O/U - 104.25 Tm pts - DvP 7
Tristan Thompson ($6200) @NO - 27 min - 223.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts - DvP 17
DeAndre Jordan ($7800) vs. PHO - 30 min - 218.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts - DvP 30

Ayton is going to continue to have a large amount of usage with Booker out. The DvP doesn't bother since Booker is out. Thompson is in a great spot with a good price point. The high implied total will give him a strong 5x+ chance. Jordan has the best DvP of the slate and while he's not clunker proof, has a good 5x chance particularly if Doncic plays.

Good luck to everyone tonight!