Fanduel 1/7/19 NBA Picks

Haven't had the time to write in a while, but I'm moving back to my initial format of providing data for one simple reason: I was more successful. The primary reason that I'm writing these posts is that my thinking and selection of lineups is enhanced when I write my thoughts down. I limit the pool of players that I pick from and have been more successful. I may return to more advanced stats, but I'd have to see the utility in them from my model before reintroducing them. Eight game slate tonight with Giannis, Harden, and AD leading the way, which will make me have exposure to all of them in some way. Let's try to find some value:

Damian Lillard ($9200) vs. NY - 37 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - DvP - 18
Kyrie Irving ($9000) vs. BKN - 33 min - 220 O/U - 115 Tm pts - DvP - 15
De'Aaron Fox ($8100) vs. ORL - 33 min - 221.5 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts - DvP - 6
Mike Conley ($8100) @NO - 33 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts - DvP - 25

Nervous about both Dame and Kyrie with those high spreads: POR (-12); BOS (-10). I expect BKN to beat the spread here and keep the game close so I'm leaning toward Kyrie over Dame. Three clunkers in a row for Fox and ORL is pretty good against PGs, but I'm still expecting 4.5x from Fox. It feels like a home bounce back game after playing GS, DEN, and POR, which are all substantially better than ORL.  Conley is in a good spot with a NO team that isn't good against PGs and the O/U being about as high as you'll see any MEM game have.

Value Plays

Shabazz Napier ($3900) @BOS - 26 min - 220 O/U - 105 Tm pts - DvP 9
D.J. Augustin ($5000) @SAC - 30 min - 221.5 O/U - 108 Tm pts - DvP 29
Derrick White ($5800) @DET - 29 min - 213.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts - DvP 21

When faced with trusting DvP or minutes you always go minutes. Napier gives you good value and roster construction. He's very probable for 5x. Augustin hasn't been great lately, but SAC doesn't guard anything so 5x is probable tonight. The projection sites are down on White, but I can't see why. Gay is still out and White has been around 5x at this price point the last five games and above 5.5x in three of those games.

SG

James Harden ($12900) vs. DEN - 39 min - 215.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts - DvP 4
Jrue Holiday ($8700) vs. MEM - 36 min - 214.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts - DvP 6
DeMar DeRozan ($8300) @DET - 35 min - 213.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts - DvP 26
D'Angelo Russell ($8200) @BOS - 34 min - 220 O/U - 105 Tm pts - DvP 5

Harden is DvP proof so I would play him without caution. He's playing in a close game against a good team, which is always a good spot. Holiday's price tag is still reflective of when Payton was injured. I can't play him with this price point and matchup. DeRozan is a good tourney play. He's inconsistent, but the matchup is a good bet for 5x. Russell has been carrying the load lately as Dinwiddie has produced a bunch of clunkers. He's a tourney only option for me, but he's been around or over 5x the past four games at this price point.

Value Plays

Garrett Temple ($3700) @NO - 31 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts - DvP 29
Austin Rivers ($4500) vs. DEN - 39 min - 215.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts - DvP 4
Jaylen Brown ($4500) vs. BKN - 27 min - 220 O/U - 115 Tm pts - DvP 2

I'd say you can Buddy Hield ($7400), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6600), and Evan Fournier ($5500) to this list since this O/U is attractive. Temple is more roster construction than anything because he's on court all the time and nothing happens. Rivers is dependent on scoring, but he's on the court the entire game. A nice pivot from Rivers, who will have high ownership, is Brown since his minutes are trending upwards.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12100) vs. UTA - 35 min - 222.5 O/U - 114 Tm pts - DvP 7
Brandon Ingram ($6900) @DAL - 37 min - 222.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts - DvP 9
Kyle Anderson ($6600) @NO - 34 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts - DvP 25

I don't care about the DvP for Giannis because he's a position-less player. I care more about the highest O/U on the slate in what should be a close game. He's in play for me. Ingram has been playing huge minutes for LAL lately. Only 25 minutes in a blowout loss to MIN, but here's his minutes totals for the three games prior: (37, 41, 39).  He was 5x+ in all three of those games. I wonder what Anderson's ownership will be since he seems like an easy "yes" play to me. I'm playing him regardless.

Value Plays

Davis Bertans ($3900) @DET - 29 min - 213.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts - DvP 2
Gordan Hayward ($5700) vs. BKN - 30 min - 220 O/U - 115 Tm pts - DvP 3
Maurice Harkless ($5100) vs. NY - 30 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts - DvP 27

You can add Jonathan Isaac ($4300), Gerald Green ($3800), Gary Harris ($6200), and Jared Dudley ($3500) to this list. Bertans is getting consistent minutes with Gay out so I'm not swayed by DvP. Hayward is a tourney play with Kyrie back. If Morris is out then I think he's a much stronger play, but I just can't trust Hayward yet. Big Mo is crushing it when he plays. He's probable, but he was scratched as a probable last game so you want to stay away from him in cash games.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12500) vs. MEM - 38 min - 214.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts - DvP 1
Blake Griffin ($9600) vs. SA - 37 min - 214 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts - DvP 4
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8600) @DET - 33 min - 214 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts - DvP 12

AD is DvP proof, but I'm a bit more inclined to play Harden. I'll have similar exposure to AD and Giannis around 25%. Griffin has been really good lately and DET leans on him heavily, but it's a high price tag. You have to believe he's going to be at 50 points tonight to play. Aldridge has slowed down again as his minutes have gone down, which means I'm fading him.

Value Plays

Rodions Kurucs ($4300) @BOS - 31 min - 220 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts - 2
JaMychal Green ($4300) @NO - 26 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts - DvP 19
Noah Vonleh ($6100) @POR - 29 min - 221.5 O/U - 105 Tm pts - 11

You can add Derrick Favors ($6000) as a solid tourney play with Al-Farouq Aminu ($5800) as a nice pivot. Green has been around 4.5x at this price point and is a strong play. Kurucs has been underwhelming, but the minutes should push close to 30 with all of the injuries. Vonleh has been a consistent 4.5x+ player at this price point and I expect him to be around there tonight as well.

C

Nikola Jokic ($10400) @HOU - 34 min - 216 O/U - 107.5 Tm pts - DvP 20
Nikola Vucevic ($9700) @SAC - 28 min - 221.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts - DvP 23
Jusuf Nurkic ($9500) vs. NY - 31 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts - DvP 21
Clint Capela ($9000) vs. DEN - 35 min - 216 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts - DvP 11

Jokic has been smoking and he generally shows up more in big games so I'll have some exposure to Jokic. Vucevic and Nurkic are in similar good spots. I'll have exposure to them too. I like all three of them a little more than Capela, but he has been good lately particularly with CP3 and Gordon out.

Value Plays

DeAndre Jordan ($6800) vs. LAL - 33 min - 222.5 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts - DvP 27
Marc Gasol ($7600) @NO - 34 min - 214.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts - DvP 19

Neither player has been great lately, but these are good matchups. I'll probably lean more on the top guys for this slate, but some variability to Jordan and Gasol will be warranted in my opinion.

Good luck to everyone tonight!