Fanduel 12/12/18 NBA Picks

11 game slate tonight with lots of star power and back-to-back ESPN games, which may end with each team turning it up for national coverage. Six players at $10000+ and 15 players total at $9000+ so lots of roster construction variability in this slate. Let's try to find some value:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11500) @NO - 35 min - 235 O/U - 118.5 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9200) vs. BKN - 35 min - 224 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Stephen Curry ($9400) vs. TOR - 34 min - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts

I'm assuming big ownership for Russ. I think there should be for Curry too given they may want to make a statement tonight against TOR. I like Curry more than Simmons, but Butler is out, so Simmons will get more usage. I think Butler out translates to more Embiid usage than Simmons though. Also consider Kyrie Irving ($8500) against the All-Star game level defense from John Wall.

Value Plays

T.J. McConnell ($4300) vs. BKN - 27 min - 224.5 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Collin Sexton ($5300) vs. NY - 35 min - 214 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Jalen Brunson ($4500) vs. ATL - 30 min - 226 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts


With Butler out, McConnell will get extra run. Looks like a bankable 5x here. Sexton is intriguing. The minutes are there, but outside the WAS game, he's been a 20-27 point player. Still pretty good value for his price point. Brunson is an excellent play. The minutes and matchup are good.

SG

Jrue Holiday ($9100) vs. OKC - 38 min - 235 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts
Luka Doncic ($7200) vs. ATL - 30 min - 226 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6200) vs. MIN - 26 min - 226.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Buddy Hield ($6100) vs. MIN - 32 min - 226.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts

I'm fading both Oladipo and Beal. I like Holiday in the matchup and Doncic in the "I'm better than Trae Young" matchup. I like both Bogdan and Hield here at home against MIN. Consistent roles and good price points.

Value Plays

Furkan Korkmaz ($4200) vs. BKN - 28 min - 224.5 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Alec Burks ($5300) vs. NY - 32 min - 214 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Marcus Smart ($5000) @WAS - 29 min - 219 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts

Furkan is in the starting lineup tonight so he's definitely in play. Burks and Smart both seem underpriced given their recent performances and minutes. Good price points for both.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12200) @IND - 36 min - 217.5 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Kevin Durant ($10200) vs. TOR - 35 min - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10100) @GS - 36 min - 227.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts
Paul George ($9100) @NO - 35 min - 235 O/U - 118.5 Tm pts

GTD nightmare with Kawhi. Pretty easy to fade last night, but no idea tonight. I'll spend elsewhere. Durant and George look like they're in great spots. I'll have exposure to both. Giannis is priced too high for me given his volatility. Only AD is consistent enough at that price.

Value Plays

Wilson Chandler ($4600) vs. BKN - 35 min - 224.5 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Cedi Osman ($4900) vs. NY - 35 min - 214 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Solomon Hill ($3600) vs. OKC - 27 min - 235 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts

Hill is in a good sport with Mirotic out and Moore GTD. Chandler and Osman has great price points for their minutes.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12400) vs. OKC - 35 min - 235 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts
Blake Griffin ($9100) @CHA - 37 min - 217 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
John Collins ($8000) @DAL - 32 min - 226 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts

AD will get some exposure from me. ESPN showdown with Mirotic out. He'll show up. I'll take Collins over Griffin. Collins's price point is more accurate and I'd continue to expect 5x from him here.

Value Plays

Larry Nance Jr. ($5800) vs. NY - 26 min - 214 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Marcus Morris ($5700) @WAS - 32 min - 219 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Draymond Green ($6700) vs. TOR - 30 min - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Taj Gibson ($4600) @SAC - 25 min - 226 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($4500) vs. TOR - 25 - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts

Morris Nance both seem undervalued. I'm expecting 4.5x+ here for their price points. This is a feel play, but it seems like Draymond wants to turn it up for a national game here. Gibson is undervalued due to a bad last performance and Jerebko is the beneficiary of Iggy being out. Add Kevin Knox ($4900) in there as well as he's moved into the starting lineup.

C

Joel Embiid ($10700) vs. BKN - 38 min - 224.5 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Julius Randle ($8800) vs. OKC - 32 min - 235 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts
Marc Gasol ($7400) vs. POR - 32 min - 201 O/U - 102 Tm pts
Enes Kantor ($7400) @CLE - 25 min - 214 O/U - 107.5 Tm pts

The minutes in NY are unpredictable. With no Tristan Thompson, Kanter could dominate. Gasol's price point makes him very intriguing. Randle's usage is crazy. But he has to get over 40 to get to value. 4.5x probably more likely than 5x. Embiid seems like a stretch to me. Better value at other positions for the same price.

Value Plays

Aron Baynes ($3700) @WAS - 8 min - 219 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Nerlens Noel ($3800) @NO - 17 min - 235 O/U - 118.5 Tm pts
Steven Adams ($6700) @NO - 30 min - 235 O/U - 118.5 Tm pts

Adams seems underpriced in this game. Should be mid-$7000 with this implied total. Noel and Baynes are great values. Baynes is confirmed as the starter so feel free to go ahead and play him.

Good luck to everyone tonight!