Fanduel 12/28/18 NBA Picks

In the red last night, but not a total loss. Two lineups hit, but didn't hit big enough to cover the other losses. My model only lineups, which I spend less on, all missed. I wasn't on Embiid or Shumpert and they were necessary for a big cash. Here's last night's perfect lineup:

Luke Kornet - 36.1
Lonzo Ball - 55.8
Kevin Durant - 58.5
Joel Embiid - 61
Iman Shumpert - 44.7
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 68.8
Dante Exum - 29.8
D.J. Wilson - 33.3
C.J. McCollum - 37.3

Rarely do you see a perfect lineup with three players above $10,000. But with a small five game slate and incredible performances by players under $4,000 there you have it. Ten game slate tonight with three players over $10,000 and 11 players over $9,000. Let's try to find some value:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11500) @PHO - 36 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Kemba Walker ($9800)  vs. BKN - 34 min - 220.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
Kris Dunn ($7600) @WAS - 31 min - 216 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts
Derrick Rose ($7500) vs. ATL - 31 min - 229.5 O/U - 119.25 Tm pts

With Paul George out, I'm expecting a boost to Russ and while OKC is favored (-6.5), they're on the road so I'm thinking Booker and Ayton will keep this close enough that Russ will have regular minutes. Walker's price point is too high for me on this slate because of Russ's usage boost and with Kyle Lowry and John Wall out. Dunn and Rose may be in play for me given they both have good DvP matchups (ATL DvP vs PG: 27; WAS DvP vs PG: 26), but the value plays may make it hard to fit them in.

Value Plays

Tomas Satoransky ($3800) vs. CHI - 36 min - 216 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Fred VanVleet ($5500) @ORL - 34 min - 209 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Lonzo Ball ($6500) vs. LAC - 28 min - 229.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts

Satoransky might be a must play. Based on his minutes and usage with Wall out, he could fall over Wendell Carter Jr. every other possession and still reach 5x. VanVleet had a clunker his last game without Lowry, but that was against MIA who is a superior defensive team in comparison to ORL. I'm expecting a better game tonight from VanVleet and closer to 5x. I'm not sure why the minutes projection is under 30 for Ball in the battle of LA. He played 36 minutes last night and Rondo is still out. Expect closer to 30-32 even if they are trying to manage his minutes.

SG

Bradley Beal ($8400) vs. CHI - 37 min - 216 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Jrue Holiday ($9400) vs. DAL - 36 min - 229.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Devin Booker ($9500) vs. OKC - 36 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts
DeMar DeRozan ($8800) @DEN - 32 min - 214 O/U - 105 Tm pts

Victor Oladipo ($8700) and Luka Doncic ($8500) are GTD and both expected to play. If I think Doncic is going to play he's definitely in play for me. Booker's price has skyrocketed and for good reason. Here's his point totals for the last six games: (59.4, 36.9, 60.8, 46, 54.4, 44.9). Even with the high price, 4.5x+ seems very likely. Holiday is a model of consistency; here's his point totals from the last six games: (45, 42.4, 44.2, 58, 39.4, 43). He's more of a 4.5x guy at this price point than a 5x guy, but he's super reliable. I assume you have to consider DeRozan since he's been above 50 points in the last two games, which included his last game against DEN. I don't like him tonight, but I can't find a logical reason as to why.

Value Plays

Josh Hart ($3700) vs. LAC - 28 min - 229.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Dennis Schroder ($5600) @PHO - 29 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Danny Green ($4500) @ORL - 33 min - 209 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Lou Williams ($6200) @LAL - 23 min - 229.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts

Sweet Lou is a good tourney play. He's been smoking in limited minutes. 39.6 points in 22 minutes and 38.9 points in 25 minutes in his last two games. With how underwhelming their guard play is I'd hope Lou would get more minutes, but he won't. Hart played 32 minutes last night and is a staple rotation guy for the Lakers. Extremely undervalued here and a good roster construction play. The minutes are real for Green, but the production is less certain than Hart's in my opinion. Schroder should be the major beneficiary of Paul George's absence. George is integral for OKC when Russ sits at the end of 1st and 3rd quarters. I'm betting on Schroder taking over that role and I'm expecting 5x here.

SF

Kawhi Leonard ($10300) @ORL - 36 min - 209 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Josh Richardson ($7600) vs. CLE - 36 min - 200.5 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($7100) @LAL - 30 min - 229.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
T.J. Warren ($7000) vs. OKC - 35 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts

Kawhi is always a strong play when Lowry is out. You'd like to see a higher implied total for this game, but I still like him here. Richardson has been sitting around 4.5x with this price point which doesn't really excite me especially with this low implied total. Danilo was on pace for 5x in his last game, but he sat most of the 2nd half as they were blowing out the Kings. LAC is favored (-5.5) over the Lakers, but I'm expecting this game to be close and him around 4.5x. Warren should get a boost without have PG-13 guarding him. He's got more upside than Danilo and Richardson as well.

Value Plays

Darius Miller ($3800) vs. DAL - 33 min - 229.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Robert Covington ($6500) vs. ATL - 34 min - 229.5 O/U - 119.25 Tm pts
Justice Winslow ($6500) vs. CLE - 25 min - 200.5 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts
Trevor Ariza ($6100) vs. CHI - 36 min - 216 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts

Miller's minutes are real. He's been over 30 minutes a night the last five games, which makes him a strong punt/5x roster construction play. ATL is dead last in DvP versus SFs and I just feel like this is one of those games that Covington gets five steals/blocks and gets to 5x. The projection sites are off of Winslow, but he's still playing PG and his bound to be closer to 30 minutes. The price tag might scare me off so that is a legit concern. Ariza is a strong play without Wall in the lineup.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12600) vs. DAL - 37 min - 229.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Blake Griffin ($9400) @IND - 35 min - 205 O/U - 99.25 Tm pts
John Collins ($8200) @MIN - 31 min - 229.5 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts

AD is Mr. Consistent and I'll have some exposure to him even with such a high price tag. The implied total for DET probably turns me off to Griffin even with a good DvP spot (IND 23rd against PFs). I'm not crazy about Collins's price point, but 4.5x is probable with this high implied total.

Value Plays

Kyle Kuzma ($7200) vs. LAC - 35 min - 229.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Montrezl Harrell ($7100) @LAL - 27 min - 229.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
Pascal Siakam ($6600) @ORL - 35 min - 209 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Serge Ibaka ($6600) @ORL - 32 min - 209 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Dirk Nowitzki ($3500) @NO - 12 min - 229.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts

Oh yes, Dirk is in play for me. Sure Maxi Kleber ($4000) is probably a better play but Dirk is working his way to 20 minutes a game and might be in the low teens tonight, which could get him to 5x and a great roster construction play. Just like when Ingram was out, Kuzma's usage just skyrockets with LBJ out. Possibly reaching here with Harrell, but who on the Lakers can stop him in the paint? I hate his volatility, but he seems like a good tourney play. The actual largest spike in usage when Lowry is out is Ibaka. I don't know why, but he and Siakam's price points have come down to a level where they are again in play for me.

C

Nikola Jokic ($9800) vs. SA - 32 min - 214 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Andre Drummond ($9700) @IND - 34 min - 205 O/U - 99.25 Tm pts
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9600) vs. ATL - 33 min - 229.5 O/U - 119.25 Tm pts
Nikola Vucevic ($9100) vs. TOR - 33 min - 209 O/U - 102 Tm pts

Jokic has had too many clunkers for me to trust him at this price point. The implied total is scary for Drummond, but someone is going to have to collect all those bricks. KAT has a better matchup and a better implied total, but is more volatile. He could go for 60 or for 30. Your guess is as good as mine. I don't like this price point for Vucevic versus TOR. Feels more like 4.5x than 5x.

Value Plays

Boban Marjanovic ($3600) @LAL - 12 min - 229.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
DeAndre Jordan ($7500) @NO - 33 min - 229.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Deandre Ayton ($7600) vs. OKC - 32 min - 227 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts
Myles Turner ($7500) vs. DET - 30 min - 205 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
Steven Adams ($7200) @PHO - 33 min - 227 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts

Boban may have a place in the starting lineup now. Emphasis on may. The bad news is that you'll have no way of knowing before lineups lock. The good news is he's a punt/5x play so even he's DNP-CD he'll be your drop. Probably shouldn't pair with another under $4,000 player not named Satoransky. The $7000er group here is interesting. Adams is a good play and I'll have some exposure. Turner had a clunker last time out, but had been a beast. The implied total isn't good, but that hasn't hurt him during this run. Ayton has huge upside and is a good tourney play, but 4x is possible here. Jordan feels like a safe 4.5x play especially if Doncic is playing. If I find out Doncic is out then Jordan is out for me.

Good luck to everyone tonight!