Fanduel 12/2/18 NBA Picks

Update**Gasol is in; Doncic is out; Chandler is out

game slate tonight with six players at $9000+ (only two at $10000+) with only one big implied total game with DAL vs. LAC at 227. Stayed in the black last night despite giving you all bad advice. I had a good hunch Bagley wasn't going to play so I I thought Harry Giles would get some good burn. Bagley didn't play and Kings coach Dave Joerger didn't play Giles. There's a reason why you want a variety of exposure to players under $5000 to give yourself greater chances at 6x+ performances. Let's get into tonight's slate:

PG

Damian Lillard ($9600) @SA - 36 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9400) vs. MEM - 36 min - 212.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Mike Conley ($9200) @PHI - 34 min - 212.5 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts

I have a feeling that PHI vs. MEM will go over. They're both playing well of late so I'm expecting a close game into the 4th. I'll have exposure to both Simmons and Conley. I don't have a good feel for Dam here, but SA has been really struggling. I'll have limited exposure here.

Value Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5400) @DAL - 29 min - 227 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Patty Mills ($3700) vs. POR - 23 min - 217 O/U - 109 Tm pts
T.J. McConnell ($3700) vs. MEM - 17 min - 212.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts

McConnell has averaged over 20 minutes the last three games and has high usage when he's in. Mills is a consistent roster construction play with his minutes. Shai has been a really good play recently, I expect high ownership for him. You can consider Ricky Rubio ($6400) if you believe the implied total for this game is off.

SG

DeMar DeRozen ($8600) vs. POR - 34 min - 217 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Jimmy Butler ($8500) vs. MEM - 35 min - 212.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Donovan Mitchell ($7900) @MIA - 32 min - 207.5 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
Luka Doncic ($7400) vs. LAC - 34 min - 227 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
C.J. McCollum ($6800) @SA - 36 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts

I'll have high exposure to Doncic. The high implied total and being at home just seems like a solid play. DeRozen has a good price point at his usage so I'll have some exposure. Butler has a hard time getting enough usage to get to 5x at this price point. You'd have to believe he's going to get 4+ steals/blocks to get there. Mitchell has been cooking, but he's very dependent on scoring (as is C.J.) and they have the lowest implied total on the slate.

Value Plays

Avery Bradley ($3500) @DAL - 31 min - 227 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Garrett Temple ($4100) @PHI - 34 min - 212.5 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts

You may also consider the MIA trio Dwayne Wade ($5700), Wayne Ellington ($5500), and Rodney McGruder ($5000) but with a low implied total, I'll probably have minimal exposure. Bradley's price point is excellent, but he's got a good chance for a 10 pt performance. Temple's minutes in a good game will get some exposure for me.

SF

Josh Richardson ($7800) vs. UTA - 33 min - 207.5 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($7600) @DAL - 32 min - 227 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Harrison Barnes ($6000) vs. LAC - 33 min - 227 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Richardson seems like an automatic fade with this implied total. Gallinari will get some exposure with this implied total, but it is somewhat hard to see more than 4.5x. Barnes is inconsistent, but he's certainly worth exposure at that price point in this matchup.

Value Plays

Kyle Anderson ($5700) @PHI - 36 min - 212.5 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4300) vs. LAC - 19 min - 227 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
Maurice Harkless ($3500) @SA - 16 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Wilson Chandler ($4400) vs. MEM - 32 min - 212.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts

Anderson is Mr. 4x, but you'd have to believe this is a close game and he could get close to 5x. Finney-Smith should have more minutes than projected here. Chandler is in a good spot with this price point. Harkless is a good roster construction play if Evan Turner can't go tonight.

PF

Montrezl Harrell ($8800) @DAL - 32 min - 227 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($8400) @DAL - 36 min - 227 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8000) vs. POR - 33 min - 217 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Jaren Jackson ($7000) @PHI - 31 min - 212.5 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts

Harrell and Harris continue to have high price points, so 4.5x is more likely than 5x. Aldridge hasn't been good, but you may see an uptick in performance against Dam and the Blazers. Jackson may be a good play regardless, but if Gasol can't go he's definitely going to see more usage.

Value Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4700) @SA - 28 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Meyers Leonard ($3600) @SA - 17 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Kelly Olynyk ($3700) vs. UTA - 17 min - 207.5 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts
Dwight Powell ($3700) vs. LAC - 14 min - 227 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Aminu will certainly have plenty of opportunity to have a big game against Aldridge. Leonard, Olynyk, and Powell are all roster construction plays. I'll have exposure to all three.

C

Joel Embiid ($11200) vs. MEM - 34 min - 212.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Marc Gasol ($10200) @PHI - 36 min - 212.5 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($9000) @MIA - 31 min - 207.5 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
Hassan Whiteside ($8200) vs. UTA - 28 min - 207.5 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts
Jusuf Nurkic ($8100) @SA - 24 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
DeAndre Jordan ($7700) vs. LAC - 33 min - 227 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

I got burned by Embiid last time because WAS laid an egg and he only played 22 minutes. If Gasol plays, I expect a close game into the 4th and a solid performance by Embiid. I'm a little worried if Gasol doesn't play about a blowout. Gobert has been smoking the last two games. I'm always nervous about him since his clunkers really hurt you. Whiteside with underwhelming performances lately, but Gobert might force him on the court more to get more usage. Nurkic seems like an obvious fade and Jordan seems more like a 4x play than 5x, but maybe Harrell gets him on the floor more.

Value Plays

Mike Muscala ($3800) vs. MEM - 20 min - 212.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Marcin Gortat ($3700) @DAL - 13 min - 227 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts

Muscala is a consistent 18-22 min rotation guy. If Gasol is out, I'll consider him for blowout garbage time that he got last game. Gortat seems more like a roster construction play; he doesn't get a ton of minutes so 5x is the ceiling.

Good luck to everyone tonight!