Fanduel 12/20/18 NBA Picks

In the black last night. Like 33% of the players, I was on AD and had he had a full game he was on a 70 point pace. I was on Russ, but limited exposure didn't get me to where I wanted. Two game slate tonight, which I normally avoid putting a ton of action on with such limited variability. Let's see if we can find some value.

PG

Chris Paul ($8500) @MIA - 32 min - 210 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5600) vs. DAL - 25 min - 220.5 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts

Weird NBA scheduling here. HOU at home last night versus WAS and then @MIA the next night. That gives me some pause, but Paul only played 28 minutes last night so I'm betting he's fine. Like all positions in the NBA, it's about minutes. Here's Shai's minutes for the last five games: (37, 21, 28, 21, 33). That's pretty maddening as a DFS player. I'll have some exposure due to the upside, but it's your best guess for Shai's minutes.

Value Plays

Tyler Johnson ($4200) vs. HOU - 23 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts
Jalen Brunson ($4000) @LAC - 20 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
J.J. Barea ($4500) @LAC - 15 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Devin Harris ($3700) @LAC - 13 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts

All of these are based on injury. Johnson and Barea are both probable, but are worth monitoring, particularly Johnson since we'll know before lineups lock. Brunson's price has come down to a place where I'm interested again. I think the minutes are off here and really represent his floor for minutes. I'd say 24 minutes is more likely and a 5x performance. Harris is more a roster construction play/if Barea is out.

SG

James Harden ($12400) @MIA - 36 min - 210 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Luka Doncic ($8200) @LAC - 33 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts

Harden is overpriced here, particularly against MIA, but with a two game slate you're almost forced to play him. Doncic has been smoking and with Dennis Smith Jr. out, I'd expect another 5x performance.

Value Plays

Wesley Matthews ($5100) @LAC - 30 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Dwyane Wade ($4900) vs. HOU - 20 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts
Rodney McGruder ($4400) vs. HOU - 23 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts

I assume you could add Avery Bradley ($4200) as well since he'll likely get 30 minutes. He was only a turnover away from a negative performance in 30 minutes of run (.2 FP) in his last game. Quite impressive. I'm somewhat betting on the banana boat to get Wade motivated for tonight. Matthews has been pretty consistent at 4.5x with this price point, but doesn't have the ceiling of Wade.

SF

Josh Richardson ($7500) vs. HOU - 33 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($7000) vs. DAL - 33 min - 220.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Harrison Barnes ($5800) @LAC - 32 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts

Richardson is probable, but it has been a while since he was 5x at this price point. Barnes with the best DVP as LAC is ranked 24th against SF. Gallinari is priced correctly, but I don't see him making it into many of my lineups.

Value Plays

Dorian Finney-Smith ($3700) @LAC - 23 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Justice Winslow ($5300) vs. HOU - 25 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts

Keep your eye on Winslow's availability. He's slated to start if he plays and the minutes might be higher if his ankle will let him. Finney-Smith's minutes are fairly consistent at 17-25 minutes and he's a good 5x candidate with that amount of run.

PF

Tobias Harris ($8200) vs. DAL - 34 min - 220.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Montrezl Harrell ($6800) vs. DAL - 25 min - 220.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts

Harrell has picked it up the last two games, but DAL is 5th against PF. Harris should continue to have high usage so he's in play for me.

Value Plays

Kelly Olynyk ($5400) vs. HOU - 26 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts
P.J. Tucker ($4600) @MIA - 34 min - 210 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Dwight Powell ($3900) @LAC - 16 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts

Powell might see extra run tonight if Maxi Kleber and Deandre Jordan can't go. I like Olynyk's chances of having a 5x game against HOU. Tucker has a good price point as his usage has gone up the last three games.

C

Clint Capela ($8800) @MIA - 31 min - 210 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Hassan Whiteside ($8000) vs. HOU - 23 min - 210 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts
DeAndre Jordan ($7200) @LAC - 31 min - 220.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts

Jordan is in the best spot, but he's questionable with an illness. Doubtful they'll be an update before lock so play at your own risk. Whiteside is an enigma, so it's hard to know when he'll decide to show up. But he generally likes going against other "good" centers so I could see 5x here. Capela is a little overpriced here, but feels like a bankable 4.5x tonight.

Value Plays

Nene ($3500) @MIA - 16 min - 220.5 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Marcin Gortat ($3600) vs. DAL - 19 min - 220.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts

Both are punt plays, but if you need roster flexibility (I mean you shouldn't it's a two game slate) here's your best chance at 5x.

Good luck tonight everyone!