Fanduel 12/27/18 NBA Picks

Barely in the black last night, but any night in the black is a good night. VanVleet and Myles Turner never got going last night, which torpedoed two of my lineups last night. It's precisely why I like a little variability for each slate. Here's last night's perfect lineup:

Spencer Dinwiddie - 54.9
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - 50
Montrezl Harrell - 54.3
Marc Gasol - 53.8
Juancho Hernagomez - 44.1
Joe Harris - 38.2
Devin Booker - 59.4
DeMar DeRozan - 52.9
D.J. Augustin - 44.4

Obviously it's impossible to predict two OT games and just about no one was on Gasol (1.6% owned) and DeRozan (3.7%), which included myself. Small five game slate tonight, let's try to find some value:

PG

Stephen Curry ($9700) vs. POR - 33 min - 227 O/U - 118 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($9300) @HOU - 34 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9300) @UTA - 33 min - 219.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($8900) @GS - 35 min - 227 O/U - 109 Tm pts
De'Aaron Fox ($8500) vs. LAL - 34 min - 231 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts

I'm going to throw out just about all DvP data for PGs tonight. HOU and LAL are generally good against PGs, but the implied totals and injuries seem to outweigh that data. I'm having a hard time differentiating between Curry, Kyrie, Dame, and Fox tonight. If Harden plays tonight I feel really good about Kyrie. I can't tell right now when the Warriors are going to show up on any given night, so it's your best guess if the blowout against the Lakers on Christmas Day will make them show up at home against POR. I'm generally off anyone @UTA and I can see 4.5x for Fox against the LeBron-less Lakers.

Value Plays

Lonzo Ball ($6000) @SAC - 33 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Terry Rozier ($4000) @HOU - 23 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts

I'm sure everyone will be on Ball tonight, so expect high ownership. SAC is 28th in DvP against PGs and everyone's usage has to go up with LBJ and Rondo out. I'm on Rozier tonight if Harden can't go.

SG

James Harden ($12500) vs. BOS - 39 min - 216 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Jimmy Butler ($8000) @UTA - 32 min - 219.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts
Donovan Mitchell ($7400) vs. PHI - 34 min - 219.5 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts

Harden is officially questionable but expected to play. I'm not very fond of that Bill Belichickian injury report, but HOU is at the beginning of the slate so you'll know prior to tip. I don't trust Mitchell who's been very volatile lately. Here's his FP for the last six games: (25.4, 38.8, 19.4, 35, 45.1, 29.7). Butler has been right at 5x at this price point the last three games, but @UTA scares me off a little.

Value Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3800) @SAC - 30 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Josh Hart ($3700) @SAC - 28 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Marcus Smart ($4900) @HOU - 29 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6300) vs. LAL - 30 min - 231 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts

KCP and Hart are good plays that will get solid minutes with LBJ and Rondo out. I'll probably have exposure to both. I like Smart when he's likely matched up with a high-usage ball handler. Harden is good for 5-7 turnovers and I expect Smart to get his fair share of steals. You can add Buddy Hield ($7200) to this mix as well. He and Bogdan had clunkers last night as SAC was getting blown out and then the third unit got it close. I expect a better effort tonight and think they're both good tourney plays.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12000) vs. NY - 36 min - 228 O/U - 121.25 Tm pts
Kevin Durant ($10500) vs. POR - 35 min - 227 O/U - 118 Tm pts

I'm not fond of back-to-back games against the same opponent and while Giannis torched NY last game (67.3 points) he's only been 5x at this price point twice in the last 10 games. Same with Durant as with Curry, will the Warriors show up tonight? I'm leaning towards yes, but I've been burned by them before after a bad loss.

Value Plays

Brandon Ingram ($6400) @SAC - 36 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Gerald Green ($3600) vs. BOS - 23 min - 216 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Lance Stephenson ($4100) @SAC - 11 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts

I've got to believe with LBJ out that Stephenson is closer to 15 minutes, but maybe that's not enough to get on your roster. Daniel House ($4100) will get 20-25 minutes so maybe that's a better play. Green is a nice roster construction play. Ingram, like Ball, will have high ownership but the price is right.

PF

Draymond Green ($7100) vs. POR - 31 min - 227 O/U - 118 Tm pts
Jayson Tatum ($7000) @HOU - 31 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Kyle Kuzma ($6700) @SAC - 36 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts

Draymond has to get to 35.5 to be 5x. Think he gets there? PF is thin tonight so maybe he's worth the gamble, if you can even qualify that. For what it's worth, he's only been 5x at this price point twice in the last eight games. Outside of a clunker against CHA, Tatum has been pretty impressive in his last five games. Here's his point totals: (47.5, 21.3, 36, 40.6, 34.6). Will Kuzma return to Ingram injured performance levels? I'm betting he's launch more shots tonight so he's a go for me.

Value Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5100) @GS - 32 min - 227 O/U - 109 Tm pts
P.J. Tucker ($4800) vs. BOS - 36 min - 216 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($4000) vs. POR - 17 min - 227 O/U - 118 Tm pts

Aminu's minutes the last two games has been 32+ so if you believe he's getting that kind of run he's a good play. Tucker's price point puts him in play for me although I wish he was closer to $4500. Jerebko's price has come down after back-to-back clunkers. He's still a solid rotation guy for them and is in play for me. You can add Noah Vonleh ($6100) and Kevin Knox ($6000) both of which have been hovering around 5x in the their last three games.

C

Joel Embiid ($10500) @UTA - 33 min - 219.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($9000) vs. BOS - 33 min - 216 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($8900) vs. PHI - 33 min - 219.5 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts

Is this a game where Embiid and Gobert both elevate their games against one another? You have to believe that to roster Embiid. The plus side to this game is that it should be close, which might bump their minutes up 2-4 minutes a piece. Capela has got 50+ in his last two games, but this is a tougher matchup (BOS DvP: 6th) and he has a big price point. Doesn't feel like I'm going to roster him.

Value Plays

Enes Kanter ($5900) @MIL - 25 min - 228 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts
Willie Cauley-Stein ($7500) vs. LAL - 30 min - 231 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
Ivica Zubac ($6500) @SAC - 25 min - 231 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts

Very clever pricing by Fanduel on Zubac. He's got to get to 32.5 to get to 5x, but McGee is supposed to be out again tonight. Feels like I'm chasing a little here, but his last three games have been legit. Cauley-Stein has the best DvP matchup on the slate (LAL DvP: 25th) and he should be fresh after only playing 22 minutes last night. Kanter has a bad matchup, but under $6000 makes him very enticing. I'd still lean more towards Zubac, but Kanter feels like a good 5x candidate at this price point. Also consider Tyson Chandler ($3800) if you're looking to punt and get some roster flexibility.

Good luck to everyone tonight!