Fanduel 12/30/18 NBA Picks

First time fully in the red in a while last night. The winning lineup was near 7x with the drop which is insane. It happens when there's so much value on the slate. You had to be correct when pairing with chalk and I whiffed by not having more variability. I played too much AD and Alex Len, which crushed my night. But that was yesterday and you're just bound to have nights like that. Let's try to find some value in tonight's five game slate:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11800) @DAL - 36 min - 226 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9600) @POR - 34 min - 223 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
De'Aaron Fox ($9000) @LAL - 34 min - 232 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($8800) vs. PHI - 36 min - 223 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts

I thought Russ was going to have a bigger game with PG-13 out, but he had zero steals or blocks so that hurt that chance. DAL ranked 22nd in DvP against PGs, so it's a pretty favorable matchup for Russ, but it's a big price tag with PG-13 being probable. Embiid is questionable and you'll have no idea before lock whether he's playing or not, which puts Simmons's stock in question for me. I'd be a yes if I knew Embiid was out. Fox's price tag is correct as he's generally around 5x at this price point. I think you can pencil in 4.5x tonight for Fox. Lillard put up 49.9 points last night and I'm generally more comfortable playing him at home. At under $9000, I think you'd have to consider him.

Value Plays

Lonzo Ball ($6500) vs. SAC - 38 min - 232 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Fred VanVleet ($5500) vs. CHI - 27 min - 208 O/U - 109.25 Tm pts

Can I get burned by VanVleet one more time? TOR was doing fine and then all of sudden the Shaq and Penny Magic showed up and blitzed them. It's a good matchup and Lowry is out again. I'll have some exposure. Ball is in an excellent matchup and I have no idea why Fanduel hasn't pushed up his price yet.

SG

Luka Doncic ($8600) vs. OKC - 32 min - 226 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Jimmy Butler ($8300) @POR - 36 min - 223 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts

Doncic was due for a bit of a clunker, but a clunker for him is 36.9 points. He effects the game in so many ways it's hard for him to have a total dud performance. OKC is 26th against SGs, so he's a go for me. Butler's performance has been rising and maybe you have some exposure to him in Simmons if you're a multi-lineup tourney guy in anticipation that Embiid is out.

Value Plays

Josh Hart ($3700) vs. SAC - 34 min - 232 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Iman Shumpert ($3700) @LAL - 35 min - 232 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6100) @LAL - 28 min - 232 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts

You could add Buddy Hield ($6900) or J.J. Redick ($5200) to this list as well. Redick's probably a strong play given his price has come down. Hart is an excellent play and Bogdan has a more reasonable price than Hield. I don't expect 40+ from Shump again, but still a solid play.

SF

Paul George ($10600) @DAL - 37 min - 226 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10200) vs. CHI - 35 min - 208 O/U - 109.25 Tm pts

Price tag has finally caught up to PG-13's performance. Coming off of a quad injury, I'm probably not going to have but minimal exposure. I expect TOR and Kawhi to murder CHI tonight. They were embarrassed by ORL and the next opponent is going to pay.

Value Plays

Justice Winslow ($6400) vs. MIN - 34 min - 207 O/U - 105.5 Tm pts
Nemanja Bjelica ($5900) @LAL - 26 min - 232 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts

Winslow might be a must play at this price tag. He's thriving as their point guard. Bjelica is a tourney only play because of the minutes, but he's been above 5x at this price point recently.

PF

Lauri Markkanen ($7400) @TOR - 32 min - 208 O/U - 98.75 Tm pts
Kyle Kuzma ($7200) vs. SAC - 39 min - 232 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Serge Ibaka ($6700) vs. CHI - 32 min - 208 O/U - 109.25 Tm pts
Pascal Siakam ($6600) vs. CHI - 35 min - 208 O/U - 109.25 Tm pts

Kuzma is nearly automatic at this price point. Expect high ownership but what else are you supposed to do? As stated on previous slates, Ibaka is the greatest beneficiary of usage when Lowry is out. Markkanen is in a tough spot against a TOR team good against PFs (8th DvP). Siakam threw in a huge clunker last game, I'd expect 4.5x tonight.

Value Plays

Amir Johnson ($3500) @POR - 3 min - 223 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Maxi Kleber ($4000) vs. OKC - 12 min - 226 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Wendell Carter ($5400) @TOR - 24 min - 208 O/U - 98.75 Tm pts

Johnson and Kleber are pure injury speculation punts. I would not pair them with any other under $4000 players not named Hart. Carter is a tourney play expecting some blocked shots against a center-less TOR team.

C

Joel Embiid ($10800) @POR - 33 min - 223 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9900) @MIA - 33 min - 207 O/U - 101.5 Tm pts

We're really close to lineups locking and have no better clue on Embiid. Only multi-entry lineup people should have exposure. KAT is interesting as Rose is out for tonight. Expect an uptick in usage.

Value Plays

Willie Cauley-Stein ($7300) @LAL - 31 min - 232 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Steven Adams ($7100) @DAL - 33 min - 226 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
Mike Muscala ($3600) @POR - 21 min - 223 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts

Cauley-Stein and Adams are both under-priced so I'm going to have exposure to both. Muscala is a punt play in hopes that Embiid is out, which means I wouldn't pair with another under $4000 player not named Hart.

Good luck to everyone tonight!