Fanduel 12/3/18 NBA Picks

Seven game slate tonight with seven players at $10000+ which includes huge implied totals for NO vs. LAC, ATL vs. GS, and NY vs. WAS. I was in the red last night, but not a major loss night. Sometimes I have a propensity not to listen to my own advice and had a couple of lineups with Butler, Harris, and Harrell when I essentially said to fade them. I'm very much into variability in my lineups and sometimes to my detriment. And Embiid is off my Russ status list with an under 40 performance.McConnell didn't perform to the level I was hoping, but Harkless did so that was a wash for me. Let's get into tonight's slate:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11400) @DET - 35 min - 219 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Stephen Curry ($9700) @ATL - 32 min - 236 O/U - 123.25 Tm pts
John Wall ($9500) @NY - 34 min - 229 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Chris Paul ($8200) @MIN - 32 min - 222.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
Kyle Lowry ($8100) vs. DEN - 33 min - 218.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Russ is always attractive especially with a -2.5 spread. I'm leery about Curry given the potential for a blowout performance by GS leading Curry to only play 25 minutes. Wall's inconsistent and I generally like Paul and Lowry's price point more, but there's no denying Wall's usage.

Emmanuel Mudiay ($5000) vs. WAS - 31 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
Shabazz Napier ($4100) vs. CLE - 24 min - 211.5 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts
Tim Frazier ($5200) vs. LAC - 27 min - 236.5 O/U - 119.5 Tm pts
Frank Ntilikina ($3500) vs. WAS - 13 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts

Feels like there's going to be high ownership with Mudiay given the Wizards' inability to guard anything and Trey Burke is out. Napier has been good lately and Frazier has forced himself into lineups. Not sure about Ntilikina's minutes tonight, but he seems like a good 6x or drop play.

SG

James Harden ($11500) @MIN - 34 min - 222.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Jrue Holiday ($9200) vs. LAC - 35 min - 236.5 O/U - 119.5 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8100) @NY - 37 min - 229 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
D'Angelo Russell ($7800) vs. CLE - 35 min - 211.5 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts
Tim Hardaway ($7300) vs. WAS - 34 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts

Harden has a high price point and the usage and minutes are down since Paul is back, so it's hard for me to pay up for him. Holiday has a good matchup, but that's a high price point to get to 5x. I'll have some exposure. Beal is an interesting play. The price point seems like it's right. Russell is a gamble play. I could absolutely see this game going over, but he's just as likely to provide a clunker as a smoker. It's been seven games since Hardaway had a 40 point game, but facing WAS and with Burke out, I'll definitely play him in my lineups.

Value Plays

Avery Bradley ($4100) @NO - 32 min - 236.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Monte Morris ($4300) @TOR - 27 min - 218.5 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Alec Burks ($4000) @BKN - 24 min - 211.5 O/U - 102.75 Tm pts
Andrew Wiggins ($5900) vs. HOU - 31 min - 222.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts
Lou Williams ($5700) @NO - 23 min - 236.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Danny Green ($4700) vs. DEN - 31 min - 218.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Bradley and Burks are more correctly priced, but they are still good values. Morris has been a consistent 5x guy at this price point. Wiggins and Williams are both plays because of their price point and matchups. Green should go 5x tonight in a game against a good team at home.

SF

Kevin Durant ($11000) @ATL - 39 min - 236 O/U - 123.25 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10400) vs. DEN - 36 min - 218.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
Paul George ($8600) @DET - 34 min - 219 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Nikola Mirotic ($8000) vs. LAC - 30 min - 236.5 O/U - 119.5 Tm pts
Robert Covington ($7300) vs. HOU - 37 min - 222.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts

No way Durant plays 39 minutes tonight. The question is, can ATL keep close enough to GS to make Durant rosterable? I say no. Leonard seems like the superior play at home against a good team. George's price has come down to an intriguing level which will get some exposure for me. Mirotic's price point is a little high here. You have to go back eight games to get the last time he went 5x at this price point. Covington feels like an excellent play tonight as he'll probably get Harden duty who's good for 6+ turnovers tonight.

Value Plays

Cedi Osman ($5000) @BKN - 35 min - 211.5 O/U - 102.75 Tm pts
Soloman Hill ($3500) vs. LAC - 25 min - 236.5 O/U - 119.5 Tm pts
Juancho Hernangomez ($5000) @TOR - 31 min - 218.5 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Mario Hezonja ($3700) vs. WAS - 19 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts

Osman is getting consistent 30+ minutes in CLE. He seems like he could fall into 5x. Hill is a good roster construction play. I don't like Hernangomez's price point, but his minutes are undeniable. Hezonja is a good roster construction play.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12700) vs. LAC - 36 min - 236.5 O/U - 119.5 Tm pts
Blake Griffin ($9200) vs. OKC - 35 min - 219 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Montrezl Harrell ($8300) @NO - 29 min - 236.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($8100) @NO - 35 min - 236.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Paul Millsap ($7200) @TOR - 29 min - 218.5 O/U - 106 Tm pts

AD can turn it on when he wants to with a 50 point 2nd half in his last game. Huge implied total and I'll have some exposure. Griffin in an interesting matchup, but I don't like the price point. Harris and Harrell's price points have come down, but I'll limit exposure. Millsap is cooking and in a meaningful game. Seems like he's got to get some exposure.

Value Plays

Jonas Jerebko ($3800) @ATL - 27 min - 236 O/U - 123.25 Tm pts
Jerami Grant ($5500) @DET - 32 min - 219 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Taj Gibson ($4300) vs. HOU - 24 min - 222.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts
Noah Vonleh ($5500) vs. WAS - 26 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
Kevin Knox ($4400) vs. WAS - 25 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts

No one really knows where the minutes are going in NY, but I feel like either Vonleh or Knox has a good 5x chance. I'll have a ton of exposure to Jerebko, Grant, and Gibson. Great price points.

C

Andre Drummond ($10000) vs. OKC - 33 min - 219 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9400) vs. HOU - 36 min - 222.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($8700) @MIN - 34 min - 222.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Nikola Jokic ($8500) @TOR - 30 min - 218.5 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Enes Kanter ($7400) vs. WAS - 30 min - 229 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
Steven Adams ($7300) @DET - 33 min - 219 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts

Drummond is always likely to go 5x at this price point, but there's probably stronger options. KAT's price point is closer to playable for me. Capela is an awesome play in a close game. Feels like Jokic could show up in a meaningful game here. Kanter and Adams are both really good plays at their price points.

Value Plays

Kevon Looney ($3800) @ATL - 26 min - 236 O/U - 123.25 Tm pts
Jordan Bell ($3500) @ATL - 19 min - 236 O/U - 123.25 Tm pts
Tristan Thompson ($6700) @BKN - 36 min - 211.5 O/U - 102.75 Tm pts

Both GS centers will get exposure for me, particularly Bell in garbage time. Thompson has been really good and at anything under $7000 he's rosterable.

Good luck tonight everyone!