Fanduel 12/11/18 NBA Picks

Three game slate tonight with three players at $10000+ and similar implied totals. Recently working on a new model so that's why the lack of consistent posting. Let's get into tonight's slate:

PG

Damian Lillard ($10200) @HOU - 36 min - 220 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts
Chris Paul ($8200) vs. POR - 33 min - 220 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
Kyle Lowry ($7800) @LAC - 34 min - 221 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts

If Kawhi can't go tonight, I think Lowry's going to make it into all my lineups. But the chance of knowing that before the 8pm tip seems unlikely. CP3 has been a 4.5x player lately. Dam has been steady 45+ in his last four outings so he might make it into at least one of my lineups.

Value Plays

De'Anthony Melton ($5300) @SA - 29 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts
Patty Mills ($3700) vs. PHO - 28 min - 217 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts
Fred VanVleet ($4300) @LAC - 24 min - 221 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5100) vs. TOR - 28 min - 221 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts

The Suns sent Elie Okobo to the G-League today for some unknown reason. Jawun Evans ($3500) looks to get some immediate run if you want to punt PG 2. Melton will have high ownership tonight.  I might pair VanVleet and Lowry if I feel Leonard is out.

SG

James Harden ($11500) vs. POR - 36 min - 220 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
DeMar DeRozan ($9600) vs. PHO - 35 min - 217 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts
C.J. McCollum ($7300) @HOU - 35 min - 220 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts

McCollum is appropriately priced. He's so dependent on scoring to get to 5x, but is in a good matchup. Harden had a bounce-back game and is probably good for 4.5x tonight. DeRozen has turned it up recently. The Spurs are so up and down it's hard to get a sense of them. But I would expect a good showing at home tonight.

Value Plays

Avery Bradley ($3900) vs. TOR - 35 min - 221 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts
Danny Green ($4500) @LAC - 33 min - 221 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Troy Daniels ($3700) @SA - 26 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts

I'd say Daniels's minutes are too low here. He's been over 30 minutes a night recently. Green is in a good spot tonight regardless of Leonard's availability. Bradley is a good roster construction play.

SF

Kawhi Leonard ($10700) @LAC - 36 min - 221 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Rudy Gay ($6500) vs. PHO - 28 min - 217 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($6700) vs. TOR - 33 min - 221 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts
T.J. Warren ($6400) @SA - 32 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts

Hard to believe that Leonard is going to play with how cautious they've been all year. I'm spending elsewhere. Gay seems overvalued and Warren undervalued. Danilo hasn't had problems on back-to-backs so he's in play for me.

Value Plays

Mikal Bridges ($5000) @SA - 33 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts
Trevor Ariza ($5400) @SA - 32 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts

I don't like having the team with the lowest implied total as the basis for many of the value plays, but PHO players are undervalued given their minutes and usage.

PF

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8400) vs. PHO - 30 min - 217 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($7700) vs. TOR - 36 min - 221 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts
Pascal Siakam ($6800) @LAC - 32 min - 221 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Serge Ibaka ($6500) @LAC - 28 min - 221 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Al-Farouq Aminu ($6300) @HOU - 31 min - 220 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts

LaMarcus is having some minutes issues in SA. He's been inconsistent and he's only have three 5x performances at this price point in his last 10 games. Harris is also inconsistent and coming off of a big OT game. Siakam and Ibaka will get run for me tonight. Projection sites are undervaluing Aminu. He's been a consistent 5x at this price point.

Value Plays

P.J. Tucker ($4400) vs. POR - 37 min - 220 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
Richaun Holmes ($4500) @LAC - 21 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts

I'm sure Josh Jackson ($5500) will get some exposure with others tonight, but I'm betting Warren takes away a bunch of his usage. Tucker is always on the court and nothing happens. Holmes is barely on the court and does everything. I say Holmes over Tucker.

C

Clint Capela ($9100) vs. POR - 31 min - 220 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
Jusuf Nurkic ($9000) @HOU - 28 min - 220 O/U - 106.75 Tm pts
Deandre Ayton ($6600) @SA - 27 min - 217 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts

Capela and Nurkic are overpriced, but with few choices on the slate you might need to have some exposure to both. I like Capela over Nurkic. Maybe PHO is finally settling into how they're going to use Ayton. I don't know why he's not playing 32-35 minutes, but he's not.

Value Plays

Boban Marjanovic ($3700) vs. TOR - 14 min - 221 O/U - 108.75 Tm pts
Jakob Poeltl ($4200) vs. PHO - 18 min - 217 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts

Boban is a usage monster. His body must break down so easily for him to get 20 minutes a game. Poeltl is in the rotation for Pop and should see 15-20 minutes tonight, which should be good for 5x.

Good luck to everyone tonight!