Fanduel 12/26/18 NBA Picks

Happy holidays everyone! In the black last night as I'm still trying to get a handle on how to balance the use of my model and locking guys in that I know I want to play. For instance, my model was all over Malcolm Brogdon (which I wasn't), but wasn't on Andre Iguodala (which I was). You needed both of them for yesterday's perfect lineup so still trying get a handle on when to trust the model or when to trust my instincts. The answer I'm sure is a balance of both or moreover, continuing to refine my model. Ten game slate tonight, but with only three players at $10000+ and 11 players at $9000+. Let's try to find some value:

PG

John Wall ($9700) @DET - 35 min - 221 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Kemba Walker ($9800) @BKN - 35 min - 220 O/U - 109.25 Tm pts
De'Aaron Fox ($8200) @LAC - 34 min - 238 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts

Wall is hard to trust on the road and the Wizards are so dysfunctional you wonder how much effort there's going to be on any given night from him. Kemba's price point is a little too high for me and BKN is decent against PGs (DvP Rank: 15th). Fox is in a good spot tonight. Huge implied total and LAC is ranked 25th against PGs.

Value Plays

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6900) vs. CHA - 31 min - 220 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Darren Collison ($4500) @ATL - 30 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Shelvin Mack ($3900) vs. CLE - 21 min - 196.5 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts

Dinwiddie is a tournament play to me. The price point is correct and he's in an above average spot with DvP (CHA ranked 20th) and a pretty good implied team total. CLE is last in DvP against PGs and even if Conley is a go, Mack is a good PG 2 punt play. Collison is in a great position with a good implied team total and ATL is ranked 26th against PGs. You could add De'Anthony Melton ($4200) here as he's getting good minutes, but his usage is way down with Booker doing most of the ball handling. Add Fred VanVleet ($5600) as Kyle Lowry is doubtful. MIA isn't a good matchup but the usage will be there.

SG

Jrue Holiday ($9200) @DAL - 36 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Devin Booker ($9100) @ORL - 36 min - 210 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts
Victor Oladipo ($8500) @ATL - 35 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Luka Doncic ($8300) vs. NO - 32 min - 228 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts

You could add Bradley Beal ($9000) to this list as well, but I don't like the price point if Wall is playing. Booker is a usage monster in a game that's likely to be close, but ORL's DvP is 10th against SGs and the implied total is one of the lowest on the slate. Holiday and Oladipo are both in good spots. High implied team totals for both and the DvP for both are excellent (ATL is 30th; DAL is 28th). I'm surprised Doncic's salary hasn't spiked yet. He'd be a must play for me if Holiday and Oladipo weren't also in great spots.

Value Plays

Buddy Hield ($6700) @LAC - 34 min - 238 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
Lou Williams ($5400) vs. SAC - 25 min - 238 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6100) @LAC - 30 min - 238 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
Iman Shumpert ($3800) @LAC - 23 min - 238 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts

You can add Josh Okogie ($3600) if Rose is out, but he says he expects to play tonight. Hield's salary seems too low. He's been 5x+ in five of his last six games at this price point. Bogdan is more of a tourney play, but he scored 40.3 in his last outing. Shump's a good punt/5x roster construction play. Sweet Lou's a great tourney play and his last three game logs illustrates his volatility (38.9, 11.5, 41.2). He's boom or bust, but with this implied total feels more like boom to more.

SF

Kawhi Leonard ($10400) @MIA - 36 min - 208.5 O/U - 106 Tm pts
T.J. Warren ($7600) @ORL - 35 min - 210 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($7300) vs. SAC - 238 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts

Danilo's in the best spot of these three as SAC can't guard SFs (DvP: 28) and LAC has the highest implied team total. Yet, if Lowry is out, expect to pencil in 4.5x+ for Leonard. I'm scared away by Warren's price point, but he has been really good lately outside of the last clunker.

Value Plays

Darius Miller ($3900) @DAL - 33 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5000) @ATL - 34 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Justice Winslow ($5500) vs. TOR - 25 min - 208.5 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts
Harrison Barnes ($6000) vs. NO - 33 min - 228 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts

Miller is a really good roster construction play with huge minutes. ATL is 30th against SFs and Bojan has consistent minutes, which makes him a likely 5x play today. Coach Spo said Winslow is going to continue to be their starting point guard, which makes him extremely valuable. I think the minutes projection is off; I'm projecting more toward 27-30 minutes. I'm generally down on Barnes, but NO is 29th against SFs with a high implied total so it feels like I should have some exposure.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12500) @DAL - 37 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Blake Griffin ($9100) vs. WAS - 37 min - 220.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($8000) vs. SAC - 35 min - 238 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts

AD has 63+ points in five of the last six games. Hard not to have some exposure to him given his crazy consistent performance. Griffin had a clunker last time out, but he's been really consistent at 4.5x. Nine of the last 10 games he's been above 39.9 points. I kind of hate the boom or bust duo of Harris and Montrezl Harrell. They've both been better lately and Harris's price point is appealing, but he's a guy who throws in an unpredictable clunker now and again.

Value Plays

Thaddeus Young ($5900) @ATL - 33 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Markieff Morris ($4900) @DET - 26 min - 220.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Taj Gibson ($4000) @CHI - 23 min - 211.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

I don't like Young's price point but ATL is 29th against PFs so I'll have some exposure to him. Morris has been 5x at this price point the last two games so he's a good play. I really like Gibson's price point and he gives some nice roster flexibility. Add Rodions Kurucs ($4000) who's been really good lately with larger minutes.

C

Nikola Jokic ($10300) @SA - 32 min - 216 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Andre Drummond ($9700) vs. WAS - 35 min - 220.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9100) @CHI - 33 min - 211.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Nikola Vucevic ($8900) vs. PHO - 33 min - 210 O/U - 107.5 Tm pts
Deandre Ayton ($8200) @ORL - 29 min - 210 O/U - 102.5 Tm pts

Vucevic (DvP: 29), Towns (DvP: 28), Drummond (DvP: 27) are all in good spots. I'm worried about Towns's minutes as he's been under 30 three of the last four games. I like Vucevic since he had a clunker his last time out. I'm looking for a bounce back game. Jokic's price point is too high for me, particularly with AD out there. Ayton has to be in play given he's been 45+ points in his last three games.

Value Plays

Jakob Poeltl ($3800) vs. DEN - 22 min - 216 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Willie Cauley-Stein ($7000) @LAC - 31 min - 238 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
Myles Turner ($7300) @ATL - 30 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Jahlil Okafor ($3700) @DAL - 15 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts

Poeltl and Okafor are good punt plays if you're looking for 5x potential and roster construction. Like Ayton, Turner has been a monster lately; 38+ points in his four games. Cauley-Stein has good upside in this game, but I'd lean more towards Turner.

Good luck to everyone tonight!