Fanduel NBA 12/8/18 Picks

Eight game slate tonight with four players at $10000+. No crazy implied totals tonight, although if you were counting on GS vs. MIL was going to get close to the 239 O/U, you (and if by you, I mean me) got burned last night when they combined for 200. Let's get into tonight's slate:

PG

Damian Lillard ($10600) vs. MIN - 36 min - 219.5 O/U - 111 Tm pts
John Wall ($9500) @CLE - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($9100) @CHI - 215 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts

I expect a close game between POR vs. MIN so I'm thinking of having some exposure to Dam. WAS is a mess and CLE is becoming Tank Island so I'm expecting this game to go over. Irving still seems to be much of BOS's offense so I'm expecting a 4.5x performance tonight. Also consider Chris Paul ($8200) and De'Aaron Fox ($7800).

Value Plays

Shelvin Mack ($3700) vs. LAL - 24 min - 209 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5800) vs. BKN - 34 min - 220 O/U - 111 Tm pts

Mack is a go for me if Conley is out. Conley is probably so just something to keep your eye on. Mudiay has consistent minutes and usage. Jamal Murray ($7600) is probable tonight and might get an uptick in usage with Paul Millsap out.

SG

James Harden ($11300) @DAL - 36 min - 217 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($9000) @CLE - 37 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Zack LaVine ($8500) vs. BOS - 36 min - 215 O/U - 103.5 Tm pts
D'Angelo Russell ($7500) @NY - 31 min - 220 O/U - 109 Tm pts

Harden and the Rockets were embarrassed by the Jazz in a 27 point blowout on Thursday. If they're not motivated tonight then there might be larger troubles in HOU. Beal has been a monster lately. The price tag is pretty high but he's been above 5x at this price point the last two games. LaVine is the 4x king. He doesn't do enough other than score most of the time to approach 6x. Russell is an enigma. You never know if he's going for 50 or for 20. His back-to-back performances are about even. I'd have some exposure in a good matchup and high implied total.

Value Plays

Alec Burks ($4000) vs. WAS - 38 min - 216.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts
Malik Beasley ($3900) @ATL - 33 min - 223.5 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Jordan Clarkson ($5500) vs. WAS - 34 min - 216.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts

You can add Monte Morris ($3900) as well, but he's the rotational player for Jamal Murray and hasn't gotten more run with Gary Harris out. Any guard against WAS is in play and Beasley's minutes are undeniable. Add Josh Hart ($3600) who got 36 minutes with Brandon Ingram out.

SF

LeBron James ($11100) @MEM - 36 min - 209 O/U - 103.75 Tm pts
Otto Porter ($7400) @CLE - 35 min - 216.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Robert Covington ($7100) - 35 min - 219.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts

Covington is probable so that's a good price point for him. Porter's price point is accurate as he's been around 5x at that price point the last three games. LBJ has been cooking against SA, but you have to believe that's because Ingram has been out and that type of usage will continue.

Value Plays

Juancho Hernangomez ($5000) @ATL - 34 min - 223.5 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Cedi Osman ($4800) vs. WAS - 35 min - 216.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts
DeMarre Carroll ($4100) @NY - 24 min - 220 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5200) vs. SAC - 30 min - 223 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts

Juancho is under priced still. Good value with the minutes Osman and Bojan are getting. Carroll is more feel here. Seems like he's undervalued in the match with a strong chance at 5x.

PF

Tobias Harris ($7900) vs. MIA - 35 min - 219.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
John Collins ($7700) vs. DEN - 32 min - 223.5 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Domantas Sabonis ($7400) vs. SAC - 26 min - 223 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
Kyle Kuzma ($7300) @MEM - 37 min - 209 O/U - 103.75 Tm pts

Hard for me to play Harris at this price point with this matchup. Collins seems like a much stronger play. Kuzma has been a monster lately and while the matchup isn't great, he's been really good. Sabonis is a go if he's a go. At least he has a 7pm tip so you'll know if he's playing before it locks.

Value Plays

Trey Lyles ($3600) @ATL - 29 min - 223.5 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Noah Vonleh ($5100) vs. BKN - 32 min - 220 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Bam Adebayo ($5500) @LAC - 31 min - 219.5 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts
Taj Gibson ($5100) @POR - 26 min - 219.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts

Expect high ownership of Lyles. Everyone is on this play. Vonleh is getting consistent run and this is a probable 5x performance. Bam will probably get more run again unless Hassan Whiteside made a west coast flight to meet the team, which doesn't seem likely. Gibson's price point is too low with his recent performance.

C

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10400) @POR - 34 min - 219.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($9300) @DAL - 33 min - 217 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Marc Gasol ($8900) vs. LAL - 34 min - 209 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts

There's a ton of centers to choose from. Nikola Jokic ($9800), Jusuf Nurkic ($8600), Tristan Thompson ($8100), Miles Turner ($8000). I'm not sure I see the value in them the way I do with KAT, Capela, and Gasol.

Value Plays
Enes Kanter ($7200) vs. BKN - 26 min - 220 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Al Horford ($7000) @CHI - 32 min - 215 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Jarrett Allen ($6300) @NY - 30 min - 220 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Kyle O'Quinn ($3500) vs. SAC - 5 min - 223 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts

O'Quinn is a go for the second night in a row if Sabonis can't go. Kanter and Horford have good values at those price points. Allen is in a good position against Kanter who gives minimal effort on the defensive end as the veteran on a rebuilding team.

Good luck to everyone tonight!