Fanduel 12/22/18 NBA Picks

If you were like me, you scrapped all of your lineups 10 minutes before tip when half of the Raptors didn't play. I'll need to get better at devising a better system for processing information in a time sensitive fashion. Tonight's six game slate features five players at $10000+ and ten players at $9000+. Let's see if we can find some value:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11700) @UTA - 36 min - 218 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
John Wall ($10000) vs. PHO - 37 min - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
Stephen Curry ($9500) vs. DAL - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 119 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9300) vs. TOR - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 113 Tm pts

The Wizards are awful and Wall is a big part of that, but he's had two monster games at home recently. He's definitely in play for me. Russ's price tag is climbing and Utah is a tough place to play. I'm a little surprised the implied total is even this high. I think that's a testament to how well OKC is playing. Tough to pay up for Russ when Harden is only $500 more and CP3 is out. Steph is in a good spot at home. The spread is -11, but I'd take the Mavs with the points, which means Steph should be playing meaningful minutes in the 4th. Lowry is questionable for TOR so I'm expecting a solid performance from Simmons, where I think you can pencil in 4.5x.

Value Plays

Tyler Johnson ($4200) vs. MIL - 29 min - 215.5 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Fred VanVleet ($5800) @PHI - 31 min - 218.5 O/U - 105.5 Tm pts
Ricky Rubio ($5900) vs. UTA - 30 min - 218 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Bryn Forbes ($3800) @HOU - 27 min - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts

VanVleet is an automatic to me if Lowry is out. He was in all of my lineups last night. Johnson is in play for me, but Forbes against HOU without CP3 feels like a better play. Rubio scored 39.4 in 26 minutes last night so he should still be fresh for tonight.

SG

James Harden ($12200) vs. SA - 40 min - 217 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Devin Booker ($8900) @WAS - 36 min - 227.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8600) vs. PHO - 38 min - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts

You can add Luka Doncic ($8300), DeMar DeRozan ($8200), and Donovan Mitchell ($7500) to this list. The question is: is Harden a must play? Big price tag, but he's a monster when CP3 is out. Booker and Beal are in great spots. Doncic is cooking with four 5x+ performances at this price point in the last five games.

Value Plays

Delon Wright ($3900) @PHI - 25 min - 218.5 O/U - 105.5 Tm pts
Marco Belinelli ($3800) @HOU - 23 min - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Eric Gordon ($5900) vs. SA - 37 min - 217 O/U - 111 Tm pts

If Lowry and Danny Green are out, Wright is probably a must play. Pop is a DFS player's friend. You can count on Belinelli getting 17-25 minutes every night. I don't like the price tag on Gordon, but the minutes and usage are going to be there with CP3 out.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11800) @MIA - 34 min - 215.5 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Paul George ($9800) @UTA - 36 min - 218 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Kevin Durant ($9500) vs. DAL - 35 min - 227 O/U - 119 Tm pts

Giannis's price point is still too high. He scored 30 points against the Celtics last night and didn't reach 5x. PG-13 is playing the best basketball of his life. And while the matchup isn't good, he's still a good 4.5x bet and 5x possible. Durant is in a better spot with a better price tag and at some point the Warriors will actually play somewhat inspired basketball again. Right?

Value Plays

Trevor Ariza ($6000) vs. PHO - 35 min - 227.5 O/U - 117 Tm pts
OG Anunoby ($3700) @PHI - 24 in - 218.5 O/U - 105.5 Tm pts
Gerald Green ($3500) vs. SA - 26 min - 217 O/U - 111 Tm pts

If Lowry and Green are out, OG should be another strong play. I don't like Ariza's price point, but he's been 5x at it since becoming a Wizard and maybe he wants to punish his former team for trading him to the most dysfunctional team in the association. Green is an excellent play and depending on roster construction, might be in all of my lineups.

PF

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7900) @HOU - 26 min - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Pascal Siakam ($7200) @PHI - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 105.5 Tm pts
Draymond Green ($6600) vs. DAL - 33 min - 227 O/U - 119 Tm pts

It's hard to believe Green's price point, but when you look at the game log, it's an appropriate price. He's not been very good, hovering right around 30 points. Siakam's price tag is a little high, but he's pretty bankable at his usage with Leonard and Ibaka out. I'm off of LaMarcus. No idea what's going on in SA with his minutes and usage.

Value Plays

James Johnson ($3800) vs. MIL - 18 min - 215.5 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($3900) vs. DAL - 21 min - 227 O/U - 119 Tm pts

Slim pickings at PF on tonight's slate. You could add Kelly Olynyk ($5400), Josh Jackson ($5300), Richaun Holmes ($4700), and Derrick Favors ($5200), but I'm not inspired by any of them. Jerebko feels like the best bet as he's solidified his role in the rotation and should get 20 minutes tonight.

C

Joel Embiid ($10500) vs. TOR - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 113 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($9000) vs. SA - 32 min - 217 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($8700) vs. OKC - 32 min - 218 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts

Embiid hasn't gotten over 30 minutes in the past three games, but that's due to three blowouts. I guess you could be worried TOR won't be close without Kawhi and Lowry, but they're a good team and generally hold it together. Capela's price point is too high and probably will scare me off. Golbert has been good lately, but this price point is also a little high for him.

Value Plays

Jakob Poeltl ($3800) @HOU - 22 min - 217 O/U - 106 Tm pts
DeAndre Jordan ($7200) @GS - 32 min - 227 O/U - 108 Tm pts

Poeltl is a good 5x candidate here, but you may have already punted at SG2 or SF2, so I'm not sure he's all that in play. Jordan is an excellent play at this price point and this opponent.

Good luck tonight everyone!