Fanduel 12/13/18 NBA Picks

Four game NBA slate tonight with only LeBron and Harden as the elite players. I was in the black last night, but wasn't on Joel Embiid or Jeff Green (Otto Porter scratch I should have paid more attention to) and Jalen Brunson was doing his best PJ Tucker impersonation by being on the court and doing nothing. Let's move on and take a look at tonight's slate and try to find some value:

PG

Chris Paul ($8200) vs. LAL - 33 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts
Lonzo Ball ($7300) @HOU - 35 min - 225.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
De'Anthony Melton ($6000) vs. DAL - 33 min - 210 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts

LeBron's banana boat buddy CP3 feels a little undervalued here. I think he should probably be closer to $8500 or $8700, so I'm expecting high ownership on him. Ball is an interesting play given his minutes since Ingram has been out. The price point seems about right. Melton is getting tons of burn and usage, but it feels like 5x might be his ceiling tonight.

Value Plays

Patty Mills ($3700) vs. LAC - 25 min - 221.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Bryn Forbes ($3500) vs. LAC - 27 min - 221.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Devin Harris ($3900) @PHO - 13 min - 209.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

SA PGs are consistently undervalued. But it's hard to know which one to choose. Forbes has been good lately and very undervalued. Harris is a sneaky play if Barea can't go. You won't know by lock, but it's an easy gamble with a $3900 price tag.

SG

James Harden ($11500) - 34 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts
DeMar DeRozan ($9600) - 33 min - 221.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Zach LaVine ($8100) - 33 min - 210 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts
Luka Doncic ($7400) - 30 min - 209.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

Doncic just won the draft contest between Trae Young last night, so I'm expecting a little let down tonight on a back-to-back. Harden will get high ownership tonight with a good matchup. DeRozan will definitely be more engaged tonight in what will be a close game. LaVine is Mr. 4x. 5x is probably his ceiling, but he'll save you $1500 from DeRozan's tag.

Value Plays

Josh Hart ($4500) @HOU - 34 min - 225.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Eric Gordon ($5100) vs. LAL - 33 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts
Avery Bradley ($3900) @SA - 32 min - 221.5 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts

You could add Justin Holiday ($5400) and Evan Fournier ($6000) if you think that game is going over. Hart will have high ownership as he's an easy target. I don't really like Gordon, but the price point is too low not to be in play. Bradley is a good lineup construction at those minutes.

SF

LeBron James ($11700) @HOU - 36 min - 225.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Danillo Gallinari ($7200) @SA - 32 min - 221.5 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Rudy Gay ($6400) vs. LAC - 25 min - 221.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
T.J. Warren ($6400) vs. DAL - 28 min - 209.5 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts

I expect Gay to have more minutes. Pop is going every other game with Gay for large minutes. I'll say 28-32 minutes tonight for Gay. Gallinari seems like he has the correct price point. Warren is undervalued at his usage rate. LBJ should have high ownership tonight and maybe he turns it on to be the banana boat champion. Or maybe he lays an egg like the Warriors last night. I'll have some exposure, but not without some doubt.

Value Plays

Daniel House ($3500) vs. LAL - 22 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts

Yeesh. I had to put someone down. Maybe some run for Harrison Barnes ($5700) but I don't like it. Gerald Green ($4100) feels like he should be at $3800. Maybe Jonathan Isaac ($5100) if Jonathan Simmons isn't a go.

PF

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8400) vs. LAC - 28 min - 221.5 O/U - 112 Tm pts
Aaron Gordon ($8000) vs. CHI - 34 min - 210 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($8000) @SA - 34 min - 221.5 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Kyle Kuzma ($7900) @HOU - 37 min - 225.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts

Kuzma is rolling. Expect high ownership, but probably worth it. Aldridge seems like he'll be in the 30-33 min range and with Harris and Harrell, I'm expecting a pretty good showing. Harris is harder to know. Gordon had a clunker against DAL but has been a strong 4.5x+ guy recently.

Value Plays

P.J. Tucker ($4400) vs. LAL - 35 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts
Dwight Powell ($3900) @PHO - 16 min - 209.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Bobby Portis ($4800) @ORL - 21 min - 210 O/U - 102.25 Tm pts
Maxi Kleber ($3800) @PHO - 14 min - 209.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

I know I know. Tucker is a body on the court. A usage ghost. But the price point is worth a shot that he gets a couple of steals and 5x. Portis is a usage monster and even if he only gets 20 minutes he could get 5x.  You can add Richaun Holmes ($4800) to this list as well for low minutes usage monster. Powell and Kleber are good lineup construction plays with a potential blowout.

C

Clint Capela ($9100) vs. LAL - 31 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts
Nikola Vucevic ($8800) vs. CHI - 29 min - 210 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Deandre Ayton ($7400) vs. DAL - 30 min - 209.5 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts
DeAndre Jordan ($7200) @PHO - 30 min - 209.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

Very hard to see Capela getting to 5x. He should be priced at $8100 and not $9100. Vucevic is in an interesting spot at home. I can see getting some exposure there. Ayton is getting a little more defined role. His price point is accurate. I worry about a blowout for Jordan to get to 5x. Maybe a couple of blocks on Ayton gets him there.

Value Plays

Boban Marjanovic ($3700) @SA - 15 min - 221.5 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Nene ($3500) vs. LAL - 17 min - 225.5 O/U - 115.5 Tm pts
Tyson Chandler ($3900) @HOU - 23 min - 225.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts

Boban is usage. No first half run last game. No problem; garbage time 6x. Nene and Chandler get a little more burn than you'd expect. Nene more a roster construction play than Chandler.

Good luck to everyone tonight!