Fanduel 12/31/18 NBA Picks

Happy New Year everyone! Barely in the red last night, went with more entries and it almost paid off in a big cash. I wasn't on McCollum or Ingram and had too much exposure to Ball and Kawhi to be profitable. I'm going to change up some of the information I provide in an interest to give you some more nuanced information. I've been running regressions to try to get a sense as to what best explains the variance of performance on any given slate and adjusting my model based on the outcomes. I figure I need a larger data set as I've only been consistently doing it for two weeks, but there's some general conclusions to make. First, out of all the advanced statistics out there, Real Plus Minus Wins (RPMW) has been the most predictive. Real Plus Minus (RPM), Box Plus/Minus (BPM), Value Over Replacement (VORP), Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Value Added (VA), and Estimated Wins Added (EWA) all were statistically significant with an r squared over .3, but RPMW was consistently explaining .42+ of the variance, which was better than all other metrics. Second, the NBA is about minutes and usage. How accurately can you predict minutes and usage on a nightly basis? If you're reading this, I'm sure that's nothing new to you, but how to be more accurate in both of those appears to be more complex than it should be. I'm trying to come up with new minutes projections and then provide usage data for when players are out due to injury (or anything other reason like LBJ going to Miami because Cleveland sucks in the winter). Lastly, DvP and Team Totals generally don't explain much of the variance on most nights. I was surprised by this given how much people care about DvP. A more statistically significant statistic was the Over/Under for the game. Vegas does a good job of using pace and team defensive metrics to set lines and they are consistently more predictive than DvP (at least in the last two weeks they have been). Given these parameters, let's try to find some value in tonight's slate:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11700) - Min 35.6 - O/U 225.5 - RPMW - 3.89 - USG - 33.2 - USG INJ - 32.6
Stephen Curry ($10100) - Min 33.8 - O/U 228 - RPMW - 4.99 - USG - 30.6 - USG INJ - N/A
Kyrie Irving ($9400) - Min 34.5 - O/U 201 - RPMW - 6.08 - USG - 30.3 - USG INJ - N/A

Russ has been disappointing lately and hasn't lived up to this price tag, but he's acknowledged he's playing poorly, but that doesn't mean he's going to play better. Curry has been right at 5x at this price point the last two games, but will this game still be close in the 4th quarter? GS is favored by 10, so you have to believe they will continue to under-perform if you're going to play him here. Kyrie feels like a lock at 4.5x+ tonight. Not that anyone in the world can guard Kyrie, but SA doesn't have a strong PG defender on the roster.

Value Plays

De'Anthony Melton ($4100) - Min 22.1 - O/U 228 - RPMW .17 - USG 18.6 - USG INJ - N/A
J.J. Barea ($4600) - Min 20.63 - O/U 225.5 - RPMW .93 - USG 29.9 - USG INJ  29.4
Tyus Jones ($4500) - Min 25.31 - O/U 228.5 O/U - RPMW 1.43 - USG 14.3 - USG INJ 14.4

I'm expecting high ownership on Jones if Rose and Teague are still out, which would push his minutes over 30. I'm providing an injury projection that Matthews is out for DAL (he's questionable), which doesn't really change Barea's usage. Melton feels like a nice punt play given the high O/U. He's in play for me if Rose or Teague play for MIN.

SG

James Harden ($12600) - Min 37.8 - O/U 201 - RPMW 7.58 - USG 39 - USG INJ 51.8
Jrue Holiday ($9300) - Min 36.3 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW 5.79 - USG 26.9 - USG INJ 26.4
DeMar DeRozan ($9000) - Min 35.3 - O/U 219 - RPMW 3.78 - USG 29.7 - USG INJ 35.6
Devin Booker ($9000) - Min 35 - O/U 228 - RPMW 2.96 - USG 32.3 - USG INJ N/A
Luka Doncic ($8500) - Min 34.9 - O/U 225.5 - RPMW 3.74 - USG 27.6 - USG INJ 28.8

I'm including injury usage numbers for Elfrid Payton (GTD) and Rudy Gay (Now ruled out). Harden is obviously a monster with CP3 out and with Gordon out too, it just seems like the O/U being low doesn't matter here. I'm a little surprised with how DeRozan's usage spikes so hard with Gay out, which peaks my interest so I'll have some exposure here. If Payton is out, Holiday is in play for me given his consistency. Booker is a go tonight so he's going to get a strong opportunity to have a big game with this implied total. Doncic has cooled off a little with the return of Dennis Smith Jr. He's still a solid 4.5x bet, but 6x seems unlikely.

Value Plays

Austin Rivers ($3800) - Min 33.8 - O/U 201 - RPMW -.2 - USG 14.3 - USG INJ 15.2
Marcus Smart ($4700) - Min 28.6 - O/U 219 - RPMW 3.55 - USG 15 - USG INJ N/A
Andre Iguodala ($3800) - Min 22.1 - O/U 228 - RPMW 1.46 - USG 11.3 - USG INJ N/A
Josh Okogie ($4300) - Min 23.33 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW .35 - USG 16.8 - USG INJ 17

Rivers will have high ownership tonight, but the minutes and usage will be there so I would have plenty of exposure to him. A nice pivot is Iggy, with the same price tag. I'm a little leery about him since he primarily shows up to bigger games, but if he's your punt play, he's a good one. Smart has a nice price tag as the person who'll most likely guard DeRozan all night. Okogie is in play for me if Rose and Teague are out again.

SF

Kevin Durant ($10500) - Min 34.2 - O/U 228 - RPMW 6.53 - USG 31.5 - USG INJ N/A
Paul George ($10300) - Min 35.8 - O/U 225.5 - RPMW 7.82 - USG 29.6 - USG INJ 32

The same concern for Curry is the one for Durant. Will Durant be playing in the 4th? If so, you should have some exposure. Because they are on the road I'm a little more hopeful that it will be. PG-13 continues to play out of his mind. Just compare his RPMW versus Westbrook's and you can see why you should have some exposure to him tonight.

Value Plays

Robert Covington ($6500) - Min 35.5 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW 4.76 - USG 16.1 - USG INJ 18.3
Mikal Bridges ($4700) - Min 32.7 - O/U 228 - RPMW 1.88 - USG 13.1 - USG INJ N/A
Alfonzo McKinnie ($3500) - Min 11.4 - O/U 228 - RPMW .46 - USG 15 - USG INJ N/A

Covington feels like a really strong play if Rose and Teague are out. His price point feels like it should be closer to $7000. Bridges is getting huge minutes and seems like he'd be out there regardless if they get blown out. McKinnie is a pure punt/5x play if you think GS is going to blow them out.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12700) - Min 37.3 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW 8.16 - USG 29.1 - USG INJ 31.7
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8000) - Min 33.6 - O/U 219 - RPMW 1.45 - USG 25.7 - USG INJ 27.6
Draymond Green ($7000) - Min 33.3 - O/U 228 - RPMW 2.09 - USG 16.5 - USG INJ N/A

AD let me down last time out, but AD can't produce 60 every time out. I'll have to exposure to him as usual. Aldridge is getting more minutes again and he's producing again. No idea what that's about in SA, but with Gay out I'm expecting another good showing from him. I'll have minimal exposure to Green; it just feels like the game needs to be close for him to go 5x here.

Value Plays

Jonas Jerebko ($3700) - Min 37.3 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW 2.26 - USG 15 - USG INJ N/A
Josh Jackson ($4200) - Min 22.9 - O/U 228 - RPMW -.3 - USG 23.7 - USG INJ N/A
Richaun Holmes ($3900) - Min 15.3 - O/U 228 - RPMW 1.33 - USG 16.8 - USG INJ N/A

Jerebko feels like a strong punt play here blowout or not. Holmes and Jackson both feel like good plays if PHO gets blown out. I prefer Jerebko, but I like the variability.

C

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9800) - Min 35.5 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW 4.09 - USG 26.1 - USG INJ 33
Clint Capela ($8700) - Min 33.8 - O/U 201 - RPMW .83 - USG 19 - USG INJ 17.6
Marc Gasol ($8600) - Min 33.6 - O/U 201 - RPMW 5.28 - USG 22.6 - USG INJ N/A
Julius Randle ($8300) - Min 34 - O/U 228.5 - RPMW 1.62 - USG 26.6 - USG INJ 28.3
Deandre Ayton ($8000) - Min 31.8 - O/U 228 - RPMW 1.78 - USG 20.6 - USG INJ N/A

Ayton feels like a strong play here against GS that can't defend the paint. The O/U makes me worried about both Capela and Gasol. I'd lean towards Gasol between the two. KAT exploded for a 90 point performance and while I don't expect that again, I am penciling in 4.5+ for KAT tonight. If Rose and Teague are out, I feel good about Randle as well since KAT will have such a high usage.

Value Plays

Steven Adams ($6800) - Min 33.8 - O/U 225.5 - RPMW 3.29 - USG 17.5 - USG INJ 15.3
Kevon Looney ($4200) - Min 23.2 - O/U 228 - RPMW 2.46 - USG 12.3 - USG INJ 12.3
DeAndre Jordan ($7200) - Min 32.5 - O/U 225.5 - RPMW 3.4 - USG 14.4 - USG INJ 15.4

Adams is underpriced particularly since he under-performed last game. Jordan's price tag is too low for his recent performance and is in a good spot for 4.5x+ again. Looney is a good punt/5x play, but I can't imagine you're going to punt C with all of the option available.

Good luck to everyone tonight!