Fanduel 12/29/18 NBA Picks

In the black last night, but haven't had a decent cash in a week or so. Mostly just keeping my head above water, which I don't mind. It's sort of the life only playing tourneys. I faded Vucevic and promoted VanVleet and Kawhi, all of which didn't pan out. But you can't predict the Magic blowing out the Raptors, so chalk it up to a bad night. Here's last night's perfect lineup:

Wendell Carter Jr. - 45.6
Robert Covington - 51.4
Nikola Vucevic - 74
Luke Kennard - 19.4
Lou Williams - 47.9
Justice Winslow - 51.7
Derrick White - 38.7
Darren Collison - 38.1
Anthony Davis -85.4

I was on AD, Covington, and Lou, but talked myself out of Winslow for Ariza (yikes!) and wasn't on Carter Jr., White, or Collison. Still a decent night for me, but was hoping for a bigger cash when I felt so confident about the value plays. Eight game slate tonight with four plays at $10000+ and 13 players at $9000+. Let's try to find some value:

PG

Kemba Walker ($9900) @WAS - 34 min - 221 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Stephen Curry ($9800) @POR - 37 min - 224.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($9600) @MEM - 35 min - 201 O/U - 101.75 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($8700) vs. GS - 36 min - 224.5 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts

I like Walker's spot more than Curry's but that's not to say I love either of them. When you have to 49 points to reach 5x that's a tough task for an under $10000 player. @MEM is hard sell for me even with Kyrie. He's the bulk of their offense, but grit and grind just slows everyone and everything to a halt. Dame in the best spot of the four, but he's been underwhelming recently, which is why the price tag is so low. Based on roster construction, I'm not sure any of these four make it into my lineups.

Value Plays

Tomas Satoransky ($3800) vs. CHA - 22 min - 221 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Patty Mills ($3500) @LAC - 21 min - 226.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Dante Exum ($3600) vs. NY - 17 min - 214.5 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts

Wall is doubtful and Rubio is questionable so that's why Satoransky and Exum are in play for me. Satoransky was in all of my lineups last night and might be again if Wall is out. Mills is purely a roster construction play if Wall and Rubio are a go tonight. You can add Collin Sexton ($5100) and Trae Young ($6600) in the battle of the truly terrible. The O/U is only 218 for that game. I'm taking the over.

SG

James Harden ($12500) @NO - 39 min - 228 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Devin Booker ($9500) vs. DEN - 36 min - 215 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts
Jrue Holiday ($9400) vs. HOU - 36 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8400) vs. CHA - 37 min - 221 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts

I had big exposure to Beal last night and will again if Wall is out. I don't like the matchup with DEN for Booker and prefer the more consistent option of Holiday. The Beard vs. The Brow should be fun and I expect the usual Harden showing with CP3 out.

Value Plays

Malik Monk ($3600) @WAS - 25 min - 221 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Austin Rivers ($3600) @NO - 31 min - 228 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Alec Burks ($4400) @ATL - 29 min - 218 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Jordan Clarkson ($6000) @ATL - 33 min - 218 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Kent Bazemore ($6900) vs. CLE - 33 min - 218 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts

Monk and Rivers are probably interchangeable, which makes them nice matches for variability within lineups. Hard to ignore CLE versus ATL. I don't like Bazemore's price point, but I think there's value across the board in this game.

SF

Kevin Durant ($10700) @POR - 36 min - 224.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($7100) vs. SA - 30 min - 226.5 O/U - 115 Tm pts
T.J. Warren ($7000) vs. DEN - 35 min - 215 O/U - 105.25 Tm pts

Even in their struggles, Durant has still kept pace. He's the only elite option at SF, which will get some exposure for me. Danilo is facing a Spurs team that isn't good against SFs (DvP: 28), but he has a propensity to regress to the mean after a big game. Warren isn't in nearly as good of a spot against DEN, so he's probably out for me.

Value Plays

DeAndre' Bembry ($3800) vs. CLE - 24 min - 218 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Jeff Green ($4400) vs. CHA - 24 min - 221 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Vince Carter ($3600) vs. CLE - 18 min - 218 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Juancho Hernangomez ($5600) @PHO - 31 min - 215 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts

Bembry's got consistent minutes that probably will be closer to 24-28 minutes tonight. Green is in play if Morris can't go for the second straight night. VC continues to get minimal minutes, but does a good job with them. He's not a better option than Bembry, but if you need an extra $200 there it is. Hernangomez is inconsistent, but this feels like a good matchup.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12600) vs. HOU - 37 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
John Collins ($8200) vs. CLE - 31 min - 218 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Draymond Green ($7200) @POR - 33 min - 224.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts

AD went nuts last night and while I don't see 85 points again tonight, I have no reason not to expect 60 again. I'll have exposure to him for sure. Collins is an interesting play. His price point isn't great, but I'm pretty comfortable saying he's a solid 4.5x play. Draymond should probably be in the Value Plays section, but he seems like a strong play as the Warriors need a win.

Value Plays

Larry Nance ($7100) @ATL - 32 min - 218 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5200) vs. GS - 32 min - 224.5 O/U - 110.25 Tm pts
P.J. Tucker ($4800) @NO - 36 min - 228 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($4000) @POR - 21 min - 224.5 O/U - 114.25 Tm pts

Slim pickings on value plays today. There might be some interest in Marvin Williams ($5700) if you think he's going to go off, but that's clearly a tourney play only. Trey Lyles ($3900) and Channing Frye ($3500) are good punt plays.

C

Nikola Jokic ($9700) @PHO - 32 min - 215 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($9100) @NO - 34 min - 228 O/U - 115.25 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($9000) vs. NY - 33 min - 214.5 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts

I'm interested in Capela and Gobert. I feel like Capela has less volatility and they have similar upsides. Jokic's price tag is too high; he's not in play for me.

Value Plays

Jahlil Okafor ($3500) vs. HOU - 15 min - 228 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Dewayne Dedmon ($6500) vs. CLE - 31 min - 218 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Cody Zeller ($5000) @WAS - 22 min - 221 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts

Okafor is a good roster construction play, but I wouldn't pair him with another under $4000 player. The ATL situation is worth monitoring. Dedmon is doubtful. Alex Len ($4200) is questionable. Hopefully we'll know before lineups lock about both because Len is a super strong play if Dedmon is out. I can see Zeller or Willy Hermangomez ($4500) are intriguing plays against a WAS team that can't defend anything.

Good luck to everyone tonight!