Fanduel 12/1/18 NBA Picks

Update** Scratch NY vs. MIL; they are not on the main slate.

Six game slate tonight featuring five players at $10000+ and the return of Steph Curry. Remained in the black yesterday, but missed on both Russ and Embiid due to blowouts. I knew Russ was in trouble when he had a dismal 1st quarter. Anthony Davis saved my night as my exposure to LBJ and Russ in lineups with Aron Baynes had to potential for a great tournament performance but under-performed. As always, NBA teams can't wait to DNP a guy for any reason. 15 minutes before tip last night the Celtics DNP'd Al Horford, which made me change 50%+ of my lineups. Happy to not have had any exposure to Booker give the late scratch by the Suns. Let's look for some value in tonight's slate:

PG

Stephen Curry ($9600) @DET - 33 min - 228.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
John Wall ($9500) vs. BKN - 36 min - 228 O/U - 117.25 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($9000) @MIN - 32 min - 214 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Kyle Lowry ($8300) @CLE - 34 min - 216 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Chris Paul ($8200) vs. CHI - 34 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
De'Aaron Fox ($7900) vs. IND - 33 min - 224 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Eric Bledsoe ($7200) @NY - 30 min - 231.5 O/U - 120 Tm pts

I'm leery about large exposure to Curry on his first game back, but he's been itching to play for a while. Also worried about minutes for CP3 on a back-to-back, but he only played 27 minutes last night so maybe he's good for 30+ tonight. Big spread for TOR, which also makes me worry about minutes for Lowry, but he does have a good price point. I can't believe anyone thinks the Wizards should be -6.5 favorites over anyone right now. The Wizards are imploding, but there's bounce back potential tonight from the abysmal performance against 76ers last night.

Value Plays

Cory Joseph ($4400) @SAC - 28 min - 224 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6400) @WAS - 29 min - 228 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Trey Burke ($5300) vs. MIL - 22 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5000) vs. MIL - 22 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Shabazz Napier ($3700) @WAS - 15 min - 228 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts

You could also include Fred VanVleet ($4900) if you believe in a TOR blowout. Any guard against WAS is good so I'll have some exposure to Dinwiddie and Napier. Joseph has a really good price point and it feels like either Burke or Mudiay will go 5x tonight, but I'll have minimal exposure given the low projected minutes and the clunkers they've provided lately.

SG

James Harden ($11900) vs. CHI - 34 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Zach LaVine ($8700) @HOU - 36 min - 221.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8500) vs. BKN - 35 min - 228 O/U - 117.25 Tm pts
D'Angelo Russell ($7800) @WAS - 30 min - 228 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Khris Middleton ($7300) @NY - 33 min - 231.5 O/U - 120 Tm pts

Harden seems like a tough play with CP3 back and a big spread. You'd have to believe that CHI would make it a close game (They played MIL tight this week) for you to play Harden in this spot. I had exposure to DeRozen last night and still believe it was the right play. You just couldn't expect that type of blowout. I wish LaVine was closer to $8000, but I'll still have some exposure to him. Russell and Beal also have tough price points. You have to worry about the blowout factor with Middleton, but it seems like a really good price point with the highest implied total and team points on the slate.

Value Plays

Allonzo Trier ($4100) vs. MIL - 28 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Tim Hardaway ($6700) vs. MIL - 36 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Aaron Holiday ($4100) @SAC - 21 min - 224 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Buddy Hield ($6000) vs. IND - 32 min - 224 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Bogdon Bogdanovic ($5700) vs. IND - 32 min - 224 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts

Trier and Hardaway have good price points for this matchup. You have to believe NY is going to be close for Hardaway to have great value, but not for Trier. Holiday's price has come down to an area that I feel good about. Same with earlier this week: either Hield or Bogdan will go 5x versus IND. I actually think it might be both tonight.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12300) @NY - 36 min - 231.5 O/U - 120 Tm pts
Kevin Durant ($11700) @DET - 35 min - 228.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10400) @CLE - 34 min - 216 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Jabari Parker ($7500) @HOU - 37 min - 221.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts
Robert Covington ($7300) vs. BOS - 36 min - 214 O/U - 108 Tm pts

Durant has been a must-play in Curry's absence lately, so I'm a little worried about usage in this game. Not enough to scare me away totally, but I'll have less exposure. I don't like the price point on Giannis, especially with blowout potential, but I'll have some exposure there too. TOR would have to decide they don't care to make this a game and that's the only way Leonard gets into my lineups. Parker is interesting with his usage recently and Covington has been a monster lately with MIN so he has to get some exposure.

Value Plays

DeMarre Carroll ($3600) @WAS - 22 min - 228 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5200) @SAC - 31 min - 224 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Nemanja Bjelica ($4500) vs. IND - 20 min - 224 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Mario Hezonja ($3900) vs. MIL - 16 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Doug McDermott ($3900) @SAC - 23 min - 224 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts

A little nervous about Carroll on a back-to-back, but the price point will get some exposure. Bjelica is almost an automatic for me if Bagley is out for SAC. Bojan has let me down in his last couple performances, but with the matchup of the unrelated Bogdanovic get him going? Meh. Hezonja and McDermott are both good roster construction plays and will have some exposure to.

PF

Blake Griffin ($9200) vs. GS - 35 min - 228.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Domantas Sabonis ($7700) @SAC - 23 min - 224 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Jayson Tatum ($7000) @MIN - 33 min - 214 O/U - 106 Tm pts

Feels like Griffin or bust here. Sabonis is the late game so you'll have no idea about his availability when lineups lock. Tatum is way over-priced for his consistency.

Value Plays

P.J. Tucker ($4400) vs. CHI - 34 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Taj Gibson ($4200) vs. BOS - 25 min - 214 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Wendall Carter ($5600) @HOU - 27 min - 221.5 O/U - 104.75 Tm pts
Noah Vonleh ($6100) vs. MIL - 28 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($3800) @DET - 16 min - 228.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Harry Giles ($4100) vs. IND - 15 min - 224 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts

Tucker's minutes always make him playable. Gibson has a good price point even if the minutes aren't great. Carter will probably have high ownership after his monster game last night. Vonleh will probably have low ownership after a couple of clunkers. I really like Giles because even if Bagley plays, I think he'll have fewer minutes, which opens up more time for Giles. I see 5 minutes more than projected here for him.

C

Andre Drummond ($10200) vs. GS - 34 min - 228.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9800) vs. BOS - 36 min - 214 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($8800) vs. CHI - 35 min - 221.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Enes Kanter ($7800) vs. MIL - 35 min - 231.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts

Feels like Kanter should have a ton of exposure. He's cooking and with a high implied total I just think he's going to dust Brook Lopez. Drummond against the GS front line could have another 60 point outing. I'm fading KAT due to price point. Will have some exposure to Capela, but worried about a blowout.

Value Plays

Tristan Thompson ($6100) vs. TOR - 37 min - 216 O/U - 101 Tm pts
Brook Lopez ($5200) @NY - 26 min - 231.5 O/U - 120 Tm pts
Jarrett Allen ($6000) @WAS - 28 min - 228 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts
Jonas Valanciunas ($5500) @CLE - 20 min - 216 O/U - 115 Tm pts

You could add Al Horford ($6500) in there if you think he's got a 32+ point performance in him. Thompson's price point is down to a level that I like. Just like Lopez isn't going to stop Kanter, Kanter isn't going to stop Lopez. Allen's price point is excellent against WAS. And if you think a blowout will happen, Valanciunas feels like a good 5x play.

Good luck to everyone tonight!