Fanduel 12/21/18 NBA Picks

In the red last night as I picked Brunson over Barea, Richardson over Gallinari, and was scared away from Jordan due to illness. It's why I generally don't play small NBA slates. Unless I'm going to commit to creating 25+ lineups in a GPP to get a top-10 cash, I really shouldn't play. Time to move on to tonight's 10 game slate with four players at $10000+. Let's try to find some value:

PG

Kemba Walker ($9600) vs DET - 35 min - 219 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($9400) vs. UTA - 36 min - 213.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($9400) vs. MIL - 32 min - 224 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Anyone against UTA or MEM is out for me in a big slate. Dam's usage is consistent, but those are tough matchups. Kemba roasted DET for 59 points his last time and got back on track last game, so I'll have some exposure to him. Kyrie keeps producing and the Celtics keep underperforming. I expect closer to 35 minutes for him in an important game against MIL.

Value Plays

Fred VanVleet ($5300) vs. CLE - 31 min - 209.5 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Darren Collison ($4500) @BKN - 28 min - 210 O/U - 106.25 Tm pts
Bryn Forbes ($3800) vs. MIN - 27 min - 221 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

VanVleet is undervalued at his minutes with Lowry out. Collison's price point is really appealing even though his usage has gone down since Oladipo has been back. Forbes should be 5x tonight at that price point.

SG

Jrue Holiday ($9400) @LAL - 37 min - 233 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
Victor Oladipo ($8300) @BKN - 33 min - 210 O/U - 106.25 Tm pts
DeMar DeRozan ($8300) vs. MIN - 33 min - 221 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Holiday's price tag is high, but there's tons of GTD for NO, which means I'll have some exposure to him due to the potential uptick in usage. Oladipo and DeRozan have good price points, which will probably get some exposure to both for me.

Value Plays

Marcus Smart ($5400) vs. MIL - 27 min - 223.5 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Kevin Huerter ($4800) @NY - 32 min - 232.5 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts
Jordan Clarkson ($5400) @TOR - 30 min - 209.5 O/U - 98.5 Tm pts

Smart still seems under priced given his recent performances. Huerter is getting 28-35 minutes consistent in a game with a huge implied total. Clarkson's matchup is bad, but he's consistently 5x at this price point.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11700) @BOS - 34 min - 223.5 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
LeBron James ($11200) vs. NO - 33 min - 233 O/U - 119.25 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10400) vs. CLE - 36 min - 209.5 O/U - 111 Tm pts

I'm a little surprised Leonard isn't listed as GTD (Rest) for this matchup. I'm not sure he's going to be engaged enough for this contest. LBJ has the best spot and he could certainly consider this a recruiting game for AD. Giannis just hasn't consistently provided 60 point games to really validate this price point. Maybe he goes off in a possible playoff matchup, but his recent performances haven't warranted this price tag.

Value Plays

Chandler Hutchison ($3500) vs. ORL - 24 min - 203 O/U - 99.75 Tm pts
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5000) @BKN - 33 min - 210 O/U - 106.25 Tm pts
Joe Harris ($4500) vs. IND - 31 min - 210 O/U - 103.75 Tm pts
Robert Covington ($6200) @SA - 34 min - 221 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Gordon Hayward ($6000) vs. MIL - 30 min - 223.5 O/U - 112.25 Tm pts
Rudy Gay ($6500) vs. MIN - 27 min - 221 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

Lots of options to choose from. Hutchison is a good SF2 punt option. Bojan and Harris have nice price points with their minutes. Either Covington, Hayward, or Gay are going 6x tonight. I'm leaning more toward Covington with his return to usual minutes, but I'll have exposure to all three.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12600) @LAL - 36 min - 233 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
Blake Griffin ($9300) @CHA - 36 min - 219 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts
John Collins ($8400) @NY - 33 min - 232.5 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts

AD missed morning shoot around so keep your eye on this before it locks. I imagine you won't know by then so it's buyer's beware. Griffin went 5x at this price point against CHA last week so I'd say this is a good spot. Collins is in a high implied total and while I'd like his price point to be closer to $8000, I think a 4.5x+ performance is still likely.

Value Plays

Taj Gibson ($4000) @SA - 23 min - 221 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Pascal Siakam ($6900) vs. CLE - 31 min - 209.5 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Lauri Markkanen ($7500) vs. ORL - 33 min - 203 O/U - 99.75 Tm pts
Larry Nance ($7300) @TOR - 31 min - 209.5 O/U - 98.5 Tm pts
Kevin Knox ($6300) vs. ATL - 32 min - 232.5 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts

Gibson's given away time to Saric, but this is a good roster construction number. Siakam should be in play if Ibaka can't go. Markkanen should get a bump with Portis out again. Nance is starting to do everything for the Cavs even if it's a tough road beat. Knox is in an excellent spot with these types of minutes and a high implied total.

C

Andre Drummond ($9400) @CHA - 34 min - 219 O/U - 107.25
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9300) @SA - 34 min - 221 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Nikola Vucevic ($9000) @CHI - 32 min - 203 O/U - 103.25 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($8500) @POR - 32 min - 213.5 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts

Drummond is probable, but check it since he's in the first game before lock. KAT against a middle of the pack defense against centers, but the price point is pretty low for his previous performance. Vucevic is in an excellent spot and has an extra day of rest. Gobert has been so consistent during his last six games. I'd say 4.5x is safe with 6x upside.

Value Plays

Myles Turner ($7300) @BKN - 30 min - 210 O/U - 106.25 Tm pts
Enes Kanter ($6700) vs. ATL - 27 min - 232.5 O/U - 117.75 Tm pts
Dewayne Dedmon ($6600) @NY - 30 min - 232.5 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts

You could add Tyson Chandler ($4200) and Greg Monroe ($4300) to this list. Turner has the best DVP matchup of the slate. Neither Kanter or Dedmon play defense so there's high upside with both. Alex Len ($3500) is a nice punt play and if you believe Robert Williams ($4600) is going to get close to 20 minutes tonight he's an option too.

Good luck everyone!