Fanduel 12/14/18 NBA Picks

Nine game slate tonight with six players at $10000+. Had my best night in a while last night, but had a busy day so limited time to do analysis for tonight. Let's get into tonight's slate:

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11000) @DEN - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9500) vs. IND - 35 min - 219 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Kemba Walker ($9500) vs. NY - 34 min - 224.5 O/U - 117.25 Tm pts
Stephen Curry ($9400) @SAC - 34 min - 235.5 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts
John Wall ($9400) @BKN - 35 min - 225 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($8900) vs. TOR - 37 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($8700) vs. ATL - 31 min - 221 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts

Feels like every good point guard is playing tonight. I like Russ's price point here because I don't think anyone can guard him on DEN. My exposure to Simmons (and Embiid) will depend on Butler's availability. Kemba, Curry, and Wall are in the same boat for me. I'm not sure about any of them particularly with Dam and Kyrie at lower salaries and similar usage.

Value Plays

Emmanuel Mudiay ($5500) @CHA - 27 min - 221 O/U - 116.5 Tm pts
Shelvin Mack ($3600) vs. MIA - 24 min - 196.5 O/U - 100.25 Tm pts
Frank Ntilikina ($3900) @CHA - 26 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts
Spencer Dinwiddie ($6600) vs. WAS - 31 min - 225 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts

Mudiay and Dinwiddie are the potential high point guys I'm targeting. Mack and Ntilikina are roster construction plays. Hard to fit them in though with so much talent at PG tonight.

SG

Victor Oladipo ($8600) @PHI - 30 min - 219 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8500) @BKN - 36 min - 225 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
C.J. McCollum ($7100) vs. TOR - 33 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts
D'Angelo Russell ($7000) vs. WAS - 29 min - 225 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts

I'm off Oladipo and Beal. Feels like 5x ceiling for both. Russell is a go for me. Hard to believe that McCollum is going to go off on a good team like TOR.

Value Plays

Tim Hardaway ($6900) @CHA - 37 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts
Jordan Clarkson ($5000) vs. MIL - 30 min - 219.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts
Monte Morris ($5300) vs. OKC - 28 min - 218.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts

Minutes in NY are always a guessing game. If you think the projected minutes are right then Hardaway is a good play. Morris has been getting more minutes and is cooking. Not sure I buy 30 minutes for Clarkson tonight, so I'm probably on Morris more here.

SF

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12000) @CLE - 35 min - 219.5 O/U - 115 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10100) @POR - 36 min - 216 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Kevin Durant ($10000) @SAC - 35 min - 235.5 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts
Paul George ($9600) @DEN - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts

Giannis is an easy fade. Price point is way too high. I'm playing Kawhi until he plays a game again. Durant and GS are interesting after they got embarrassed by the Raptors. George is definitely in play with what should be a close game.

Value Plays

DeMarre Carroll ($3800) vs. WAS - 24 min - 225 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
Nemanja Bjelica ($4900) vs. MIL - 26 min - 235.5 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
Juancho Hernangomez ($5700) vs. OKC - 36 min - 218.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Wilson Chandler ($4200) vs. IND - 28 min - 219 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts

Carroll is a good roster construction play. Bjelica's usage has varied quite a bit here, but a huge implied total here. Juancho is in a good spot here for a 5x performance. Chandler is in play for me if Butler is out. Add Joe Harris ($4500) as a good 5x option.

PF

John Collins ($8100) @BOS - 33 min - 221 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts
Larry Nance ($7000) vs. MIL - 31 min - 219.5 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts
Draymond Green ($6800) @SAC - 29 min - 235.5 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts
Serge Ibaka ($6800) @POR - 30 min - 216 O/U - 109 Tm pts

This is a good price point on Collins. He's been either right at or above 5x at this price point for four games. Ibaka has been cooking without Kawhi. Make the call if you think Leonard is out again. Will Green finally show up? If he does, you're looking at 6x, because he's been close to 5x with terrible efforts. Nance seems like he has too high of a price for tonight. $6500 would have brought him into play for me.

Value Plays

Ed Davis ($3700) vs. WAS - 24 min - 225 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
Trey Lyles ($5200) vs. OKC - 30 min - 218.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($3800) @SAC - 25 min - 235.5 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts
Kevin Knox ($5600) @CHA - 35 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts

Davis and Jerebko are good roster construction plays. Lyles and Knox are in good spots with strong minutes. I'm good with all four of these guys.

C

Joel Embiid ($11000) vs. IND - 35 min - 219 O/U - 111.25 Tm pts
Nikola Jokic ($10100) vs. OKC - 34 min - 218.5 O/U - 108.5 Tm pts
Jusuf Nurkic ($8100) vs. TOR - 29 min - 216 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Enes Kanter ($7000) @CHA - 28 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.25 Tm pts

Embiid is in play for me now that I know Butler is out. Jokic is in play because he can influence so many facets of the game. He can turn it on for a 60 point performance in a big game if he wants. Nurkic seems overpriced, while Kanter has a good matchup.

Value Plays

Steven Adams ($6800) @DEN - 30 min - 218.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Thomas Bryant ($3900) @BKN - 18 min - 225 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts

Adams continues to be underpriced for some reason. Bryant is a consistent minutes guy, so expect 4.5x in a roster construction play. Add Joakim Noah ($3500) for a nostalgia 5x or punt play.

Good luck tonight everyone!