Fanduel 11/28/18 NBA Picks

10 game slate tonight featuring two insanely high implied totals with NO vs. WAS (240.5 O/U) and CHA vs. ATL (232.5 O/U). I'm a big believer in using Vegas lines to help with roster construction, but I'm still licking my wounds from last night when Vegas had MEM vs. TOR at an implied total of 208 (subsequently scaring me away from larger exposure to Conley and Gasol) that finished at 236. Even good defensive teams can decide they're not going to play D on a Tuesday night until the fourth quarter. Let's get into today's slate:

PG

Lots of high-priced PGs on the slate tonight. Most likely the optimal lineup will have one of them.

Russell Westbrook ($11100) vs. CLE - 35 min - 216.5 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9500) vs. NY - 36 min - 227.5 O/U - 119.75 Tm pts
Kemba Walker ($9700) vs. ATL - 36 min - 232 O/U - 122 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($9500) vs. ORL - 36 min - 213 O/U - 111 Tm pts
John Wall ($9300) @NO - 34 min - 241.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts

Russ's usage always generates consideration for a 6x performance at anything under $12000. Big totals for Simmons, Walker, and Wall mean some exposure for all in my lineups. Probably fading Lillard with similar price point at lower implied total.

Value Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5600) vs. PHO - 29 min - 229.5 O/U - 120.5 Tm pts
Eric Bledsoe ($7400) vs. CHI - 32 min - 227.5 O/U - 121 Tm pts
Tomas Satoransky ($3700) @NO - 20 min - 241.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
Tony Parker ($4000) vs. ATL - 20 min - 232 O/U - 122 Tm pts

I always gravitate toward big spreads, which brings Gilgeous-Alexander and Bledsoe into play for me. Maybe some exposure for Patrick Beverley ($4200) as well. Satoransky and Parker are more roster construction guys for me, but I'm expecting 5x from both of them tonight.

SG

Much of SG will be dictated by CP3's availability. Harden is probably a must play again (and Gordon for that matter) if Paul is out.

James Harden ($11600) vs. DAL - 42 min - 217.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Devin Booker ($8800) @LAC - 36 min - 229.5 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8200) @ NO - 38 min - 241.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
Jrue Holiday ($9000) vs. WAS - 37 min - 241.5 O/U - 124 Tm pts

I'm fading Jimmy Butler ($8700) and Demar DeRozan ($8800). I like the similar price point more for Booker, Beal, and Holiday.

Value Plays

Avery Bradley ($3700) vs. PHO - 32 min - 229.5 O/U - 120.5 Tm pts
Allonzo Trier ($3700) @PHI - 28 min - 227.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Eric Gordon ($5500) vs. DAL - 39 min - 217.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Jeremy Lamb ($6600 vs. ATL - 32 min - 232 O/U - 122 Tm pts

I'm leaning towards Lamb and Bradley if CP3 plays. Probably have some exposure to Trier even though he'll have higher ownership after last night and I think that minutes projection is 4-6 minutes too high since he only got extra run last night since Vonleh got into foul trouble last night.

SF

Giannis, George, and Mirotic will all get exposure for me. I don't like the price point for Giannis and the spread (-14.5) worries me about a blowout. George and Mirotic seem like safer 5x plays.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12100) vs. CHI - 36 min - 227.5 O/U - 121 Tm pts
Paul George ($9500) vs. CLE - 37 min - 216.5 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts
Nikola Mirotic ($7700) vs. WAS - 35 min - 241.5 O/U - 124 Tm pts
Jabari Parker ($7400) @MIL - 37 min - 227.5 O/U - 106.5 Tm pts

Value Plays

Otto Porter ($6600) @NO - 34 min - 241.5 O/U - 117.5 Tm pts
Nicolas Batum ($5400) vs. ATL - 30 min - 232 O/U - 122 Tm pts
TJ Warren ($6600) @LAC - 33 min - 229.5 O/U - 109 Tm pts
E'Twaun Moore ($5400) vs. WAS - 31 min - 241.5 O/U - 124 Tm pts
Miles Bridges ($3800) vs. ATL - 16 min - 232 O/U - 122 Tm pts
Darius Miller ($3500) vs. WAS - 29 min - 241.5 O/U - 124 Tm pts

Warren seems like a good play for 5x, Moore has a lot of minutes, but I don't like the price point. Bridges will get exposure for me for lineup construction and possible blowout minutes. Miller is purely minutes and lineup construction for me.

PF

I'm fading LaMarcus Aldridge ($8500) and John Collins ($7200) primarily due to price point. I could be convinced on Collins, but I don't think the roster construction is there. I'll have some exposure to AD and minimal exposure to both Harris and Harrell, but their price points are really high.

Anthony Davis ($12500) vs. WAS - 35 min - 241.5 O/U - 124 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($8400) vs. PHO - 36 min - 229.5 O/U - 120.5 Tm pts
Montrezl Harrell ($8300) vs. PHO - 32 min - 229.5 O/U - 120.5 Tm pts

Value Plays

P.J. Tucker ($4300) vs. DAL - 41 min - 217.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Josh Jackson ($3600) @LAC - 21 min - 229.5 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Marvin Williams ($5300) vs. ATL - 34 min - 232 O/U - 122 Tm pts
Larry Nance ($6000) @OKC - 28 min - 216.6 O/U - 102 Tm pts

Tucker seems like a must play at those minutes if CP3 is out. Jackson is good for roster construction. I don't trust Williams, but he's been a monster lately. I don't like the price point though so minimal exposure for me. Nwada is out again for Cleveland, so Nance should get some good run and thus some exposure.

C

Tons of options at C tonight. I'm fading KAT ($9900) and Gobert ($8500), and Jordan ($8000). Embiid is worth some exposure and I like the matchup that Ayton has against LAC.

Joel Embiid ($11100) vs. NY - 34 min - 227.5 O/U - 119.75 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($9200) vs. DAL - 38 min - 217.5 O/U - 111.75 Tm pts
Enes Kanter ($8000) @PHI - 35 min - 227.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
DeAndre Ayton ($7500) @LAC - 32 min - 229.5 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Steven Adams ($7400) vs. CLE - 36 min - 216.5 O/U - 114.5 Tm pts

Value Plays

Brook Lopez ($5200) vs. CHI - 28 min - 227.5 O/U - 121 Tm pts
Alex Len ($3700) @CHA - 17 min - 232 O/U - 110 Tm pts

I like Lopez here with this minutes and it feels like either Len or Dewayne Dedmon ($4800) will have a 5x performance at CHA.

Good luck to everyone tonight!