Fanduel NBA 11/29/18 Picks

Three game slate tonight, which means I'll be providing a couple of more entries to try and find the optimal lineup. I took a bath last night with my first losing night in a week. Mind you, I'm not pulling down jackpots either, but I also don't think I'm providing enough entries (pros are usually providing 50-150 entries on slates they feel comfortable with) to give myself stronger chances to take down a tournament. I think Vegas handicappers have been over-influenced by the early weeks of the NBA that produced crazy scoring. We're in one of the dog day periods of the NBA (pre-Christmas) where effort and efficiency is lacking. If you took the under yesterday you hit on a ton of games: CHA vs. ATL O/U 232: Actual: 208; PHI vs. NY O/U 227.5: Actual 208; OKC vs. CLE O/U 216.5: Actual 183; NO vs. WAS O/U 241.5: Actual 229; LAC vs. PHO O/U 229.5: Actual 214. I wasn't on the Bulls yesterday and needed to be and foolishly didn't consider Tim Frazier ($3500) starting for NO against his former team. Also, I should had exposure to Kelly Oubre ($4700) and should have varied my exposure on players in that game overall. Time to move on from that one.

Tonight's slate features a potential NBA Finals matchup with the Warriors vs. Raptors and LeBron coming off of a bad loss.

PG

Kyle Lowry ($8000) vs. GS - 33 min - 224.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
De'Aaron Fox ($7600) vs. LAC - 33 min - 235 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
Lonzo Ball ($6700) vs. IND - 30 min - 218.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Darren Collison ($6300) @LAL - 26 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts

Ball is GTD so that's worth watching although with lineups locking at 8pm, I doubt we'll have a definitive sense as to him playing, which leads to limited exposure for me. Fox has been wildly inconsistent, but he has a favorable matchup with the highest implied total. GS is only a little better than league average against PGs, but Lowry has only put up 5x on this price point once in the last 11 games. Yet, this seems like a performance game where two teams may decide to turn it up in an NBA Finals preview. Collison has the best matchup based on aDVP, but $6300 isn't nearly as enticing as the $4900 price point last week.

Value Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5200) @SAC - 29 min - 235 O/U - 118.75 Tm pts
Cory Joseph ($4300) @LAL - 27 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Fred VanFleet ($4700) vs. GS - 20 min - 224.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Quinn Cook ($5400) @TOR - 17 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

I don't know why the projection sites have the minutes down so much for Cook. I'd say it's closer to 25-30 minutes than 17. I'll definitely have some exposure to Cook. Alexander's price point coming down is a little confusing given his usage lately. Feels like Fanduel wants you to play him. LAL is terrible against PGs, which means some exposure for Joseph, particularly if Oladipo is out again.

SG

Klay Thompson ($7000) @TOR - 33 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Lou Williams ($6200) @SAC - 25 min - 235 O/U - 118.75 Tm pts
Buddy Hield ($6000) vs. LAC - 27 min - 235 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5700) vs. LAC - 28 min - 235 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts

Thompson has been really good lately. I'm always leery about him since he's so dependent on scoring to have a 5x performance. He's a better basketball player than a fantasy basketball player. Either Hield or Bogdan is bound to have a 5x game so I'll have exposure to both and certainly some lineups pairing one of the SAC guys with Sweet Lou.

Value Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3800) vs. IND - 27 min - 218.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Danny Green ($4300) vs. GS - 27 min - 224.5 - 116.75 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Iman Shumpert ($4500) vs. LAC - 26 min - 235 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
Andre Iguodala ($4000) @TOR - 22 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

Iggy's projected minutes are off. Big game like this he's going to be in 28-32 min range. Shump is GTD, but I'll have some exposure if I can get a sense he's going to play. Same for Pope if Lonzo doesn't play.

SF

Kevin Durant ($11500) @TOR - 35 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
LeBron James ($11400) vs. IND - 37 min - 218.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Kawhi Leonard ($10200) vs. GS - 33 min - 224.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Danilo Gallinari ($7000) @SAC - 32 min - 235 O/U - 118.75 Tm pts
Brandon Ingram ($6300) vs. IND - 35 min - 218.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts

Durant has been smoking. Expect high ownership and don't care; majority of my lineups will include him. LBJ is much more interesting. The Lakers got lit up by the Nuggets losing by 32. Feels like he's going to make sure they win tonight and I guess Young gets the duty to guard him. Danilo is on a b2b but he's been really good lately and the price point seems correct. Ingram seems like a good play if Lonzo is out.

Value Plays

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5300) @LAL - 32 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Doug McDermott ($3900) @LAL - 18 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Justin Jackson ($3500) vs. LAC - 17 min - 235 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts

Bojan got in early foul trouble last game and never got going. I'm still on him with the matchup and the minutes he's getting. If Oladipo is out I think McDermott is a good play. Same with Jackson if Shump is out.

PF

Montrezl Harrell ($8500) @SAC - 32 min - 235 O/U - 118.75 Tm pts
Tobias Harris ($8400) @SAC - 36 min - 235 O/U - 118.75 Tm pts
Domantas Sabonis ($7500) @LAL - 26 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Pascal Siakam ($6800) vs. GS - 30 min - 224.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts
Kyle Kuzma ($6100) vs. IND - 31 min - 218.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Serge Ibaka ($6000) vs. GS - 25 min - 224.5 O/U - 116.75 Tm pts

Harrell and Harris have big price points and that's going to make if hard to fit them in lineups for me. But they have the highest implied total for O/U and team points so some exposure seems necessary. Sabonis has huge usage with Oladipo out and Kuzma has a good price point with this matchup. Hard for me to make sense of Ibaka and Siakam, but I'm sure they'll be some exposure as GS has no PF depth.

Value Plays

Thaddeus Young ($5200) @LAL - 27 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts
Jonas Jerebko ($3800) @TOR - 16 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

Young seems like he could have a big night since he's most likely to be guarding LBJ who has a propensity to turn the ball over. Jerebko is mostly a roster construction play for he as GS uses a four-headed monster rotation at PF/C that hasn't yielded many 5x performances from anyone.

C

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6800) vs. LAC - 31 min - 235 O/U - 116.25 Tm pts
JaVale McGee ($6200) vs. IND - 24 min - 218.5 O/U - 111.5 Tm pts
Myles Turner ($7200) @LAL - 26 min - 218.5 O/U - 107 Tm pts

Turner has been on a nice run with Oladipo out, but the price point makes roster construction tough with him. Cauley-Stein has thrown a bunch of clunkers in lately so it's hard to know how much exposure to have to him. McGee isn't getting the minutes he did at the beginning of the year, but seems like a good bet at home for 4.5x or more.

Value Plays

Kevon Looney ($3900) @TOR - 16 min - 224.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts

There's only punt plays at center, but I'm targeting Looney as the player with the most experience for GS getting more run than projected here. I'd look for 18-22 minutes for Looney with a good chance for a 5x performance.

Good luck to everyone tonight!