Fanduel 11/30/18 NBA Picks

11 game slate tonight with six players at $10000+ price points and 14 players total at $9000+. With a big slate like this I'm expecting a lot of studs and duds lineup creation. Got back in the black last night and was on the right players, but with all small variability slates, I just missed having the right roster construction to get a big pay day. I should have listened to my own advice to be on Iggy and Looney (both 5x) because of their experience, which should have led me to fade Cook because he doesn't have experience and thus got almost no run in the 4th and OT. Feels like when Russ starts going that unless he's $13000, you're going to want a ton of exposure to him. At $11400, expect him to have high ownership and I don't think you should care. Play him. Let's try to find some value in tonight's slate.

PG

Russell Westbrook ($11400) vs. ATL - 35 min - 229.5 O/U - 121.25 Tm pts
Damian Lillard ($9500) vs. DEN - 36 min - 213.5 O/U - 107.75 Tm pts
Kemba Walker ($9400) vs. UTA - 36 min - 217.5 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Ben Simmons ($9300) vs. WAS - 36 min - 236.5 O/U - 121.75 Tm pts
John Wall ($9200) @PHI - 34 min - 236.5 O/U - 114.75 Tm pts
Kyrie Irving ($8900) vs. CLE - 32 min - 206 O/U - 109.25 Tm pts
Mike Conley ($8900) @BKN - 34 min - 208 O/U - 105 Tm pts

I faded to Lillard to my detriment in his last performance and I would suspect a close game here at home against a good Nuggets team. Russ seems like he could get 60 points in three quarters against Atlanta. I'm not a big fan of Walker at that price point with Simmons and Wall there with a huge implied total. Irving has been a beast, but nervous about a blowout and while the implied total is low. Conley and Gasol have been dominating the past 10 days. Feels like 4.5x is reasonable expectations for both Irving and Conley.

Value Plays

Terry Rozier ($3800) vs. CLE - 23 min - 206.5 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
D.J. Augustin ($4600) @PHO - 28 min - 218 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Patty Mills ($3700) vs. HOU - 25 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Landry Shamet ($3500) vs. WAS - 22 min - 235 O/U - 121.5 Tm pts

I assume there's some room for T.J. McConnell ($3700) if you think there's going to be a blowout. Rozier seems like a good play if you believe the Celtics will blowout Cleveland. Shamet seems like he's undervalued by the projection sites. Any guard against Phoenix is a good play, so I'll definitely have some exposure to Augustin.

SG

James Harden ($11700) @SA - 34 min - 217 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Jrue Holiday ($8900) @MIA - 37 min - 228.5 O/U - 116 Tm pts
Zach LaVine ($8700) @DET - 36 min - 217 O/U - 103.75 Tm pts
DeMar DeRozen ($8300) vs. HOU - 35 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8300) @PHI - 38 min - 235 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Devin Booker ($8200) vs. ORL - 36 min - 218 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Jimmy Butler ($8200) vs. WAS - 35 min - 235 O/U - 121.5 Tm pts
Donovan Mitchell ($8000) @CHA - 32 min - 218 O/U - 108 Tm pts

Watch for CP3's availability to determine how much exposure you have to Harden. He's been a usage monster with him out. Holiday has a high price point to expect a 5x performance, but I probably will have some exposure with a high implied team total. LaVine seems too expensive here. He's a 4x king, but 5x is tough at that price point. I love DeRozen's price point. If CP3 is out then he's almost a must-play because of Houston's inability to guard anyone on the perimeter. Beal has a nice price point with the highest implied total, so he'll get some exposure for me. Booker is the West's version of LaVine. Bad team, high usage, 4x is almost a given, but he has a better chance with the matchup and price point for 5x than LaVine. I'm fading Butler. He'd had to get five steals to get to 5x with his usage in PHI. Mitchell is intriguing, but he's so dependent on scoring to reach 5x, which makes me hesitant.

Value Plays

Garrett Temple ($4100) @BKN - 34 min - 208 O/U - 105 Tm pts
Allen Crabbe ($4000) vs. MEM - 30 min - 208 O/U - 103 Tm pts
Terrence Ross ($5000) @PHO - 28 min - 218 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Evan Fournier ($5800) @PHO - 32 min - 218 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Luka Doncic ($7200) @LAL - 33 min - 222 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Marcus Smart ($4500) vs. CLE - 23 min - 206.5 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Rodney McGruder ($4900) vs. NO - 26 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
Dwyane Wade ($5500) vs. NO - 19 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts
Wayne Ellington ($5600) vs. NO - 19 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

I'm not sure why the projection sites are not giving McGruder, Wade, and Ellington more minutes given their injury problems. I think they are all getting 5-7 more minutes than projected. With the Celtics with a potential blowout I like Smart and I'm on guards against Phoenix.

SF

LeBron James ($11000) vs. DAL - 36 min - 222 O/U - 113 Tm pts
Paul George ($9100) vs. ATL - 37 min - 228.5 O/U - 120.75 Tm pts
Nikola Mirotic ($8000) @MIA - 35 min - 228.5 O/U - 116 Tm pts
Jabari Parker ($7300) @DET - 37 min - 217 O/U - 103.75 Tm pts
Josh Richardson ($7900) vs. NO - 33 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.5 Tm pts

I got burned this past week when I said that Richardson hadn't gone 5x at that price point in 11 games and then went 5x. I still feel like it was the right play, but he seems like a good play tonight. I like him more than Mirotic at the same price point. Parker has a nice price point given his usage lately. I wonder about LBJ after redeeming the DEN loss last night. Feels like there's better elite options out there, but DAL is good and will force LBJ to dominate if they're going to have a chance to win this game.

Value Plays

Jonathan Isaac ($4900) @PHO - 26 min - 218 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts
Juancho Hernangomez ($4800) @POR - 33 min - 213.5 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
Jeff Green ($3800) @PHI - 25 min - 235 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Wilson Chandler ($4400) vs. WAS - 32 min - 235 O/U - 121.5 Tm pts
Kelly Oubre ($5100) @PHI - 23 min - 235 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts

Otto Porter is out so Oubre and Green will get more run and certainly will have higher ownership. It'll still be hard to get away from either of them to fill your lineup. Chandler is also a great option with those minutes at that price point. Isaac is a good play if Gordon is out and Hernangomez has a good price point to get some exposure for me.

PF

Anthony Davis ($12300) @MIA - 35 min - 228.5 O/U - 115.75 Tm pts
Blake Griffin ($9100) vs. CHI - 37 min - 217 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8000) vs. HOU - 32 min - 217 O/U - 108 Tm pts

AD has a favorable matchup and a small spread, which means I'll have some exposure. The price point isn't as good as Russ, but there's not much to choose from with regards to elite PF. Griffin has an interesting matchup at home against a bad team. I'd be more willing the to the Bulls with the points more than anything in this game. Aldridge has been so inconsistent, but the Spurs are coming off a game where they were embarrassed by MIN, so I would expect stronger effort tonight.

Value Plays

Josh Jackson ($4000) vs. ORL - 21 min - 217.5 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Trey Lyles ($3700) @POR - 19 min - 213.5 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
Kelly Olynyk ($3700) vs. NO - 17 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Marcus Morris ($5100) vs. CLE - 24 min - 206.5 O/U - 109.75 Tm pts

The only real value I see here is Morris. The other guys are simply roster construction guys for me with a hope for 5x.

C

Joel Embiid ($11000) vs. WAS - 34 min - 235 O/U - 121.25 Tm pts
Andre Drummond ($10300) vs. CHI - 36 min - 217 O/U - 113.25 Tm pts
Marc Gasol ($9800) @BKN - 36 min - 208 O/U - 105 Tm pts
Nikola Vucevic ($9500) @PHO - 33 min - 217.5 O/U - 109.5 Tm pts
Clint Capela ($8700) @SA - 35 min - 217 O/U - 109 Tm pts
Nikola Jokic ($8500) @POR - 30 min - 213.5 O/U - 105.75 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($8500) @CHA - 31 min - 218.5 O/U - 108.25 Tm pts
Hassan Whiteside ($8100) vs. NO - 28 min - 228.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts

I faded Gobert last time and got burned. This looks like a good matchup for him. I'm in on Embiid who has been a beast. Feels a lot like Russ to me right now. If he's under $12000, I'll have a lot of exposure to him. Drummond is an enigma. I can't figure when he'll go for 70 or 30. Whiteside has a really good matchup and a good price point. Jokic's price keeps coming down since he's not been good. Not sure I can buy on him. Vucevic has a great matchup, but you have to believe he's got to get 45+ to get to 5x, which seems like a lot.

Value Plays

Deandre Ayton ($7200) vs. ORL - 32 min - 217.5 O/U - 108 Tm pts
Steven Adams ($7000) vs. ATL - 36 min - 228 O/U - 120.5 Tm pts
Jarrett Allen ($6200) vs. MEM - 28 min - 208 O/U - 103 Tm pts
Mike Muscala ($3800) vs. WAS - 20 min - 235 O/U - 121.25 Tm pts

I really like Ayton and Adams at these price points. Allen seems like a great play if Gasol is out. Muscala feels like a really good bet at 5x with his minutes and with the highest implied total and team points on the slate.

Good luck everyone tonight!