Fanduel NBA Slate 11/26/18

A seven-game slate tonight on Fanduel which features five $10,000+ studs (Anthony Davis is GTD). We'll look at six value plays tonight that you'll want to construct your lineup most likely around Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, or Kevin Durant.

PG

If you using data to drive your NBA dfs picks, you should know that paying up for PG has historically been more profitable. Analyses of perfect lineup trends has illustrated that most perfect lineups include a high priced point guard.

John Wall ($9300: GTD) vs. HOU - 33 min - 224.5 O/U - 110.75 Tm Pts
Kyrie Irving ($9000) @NO -32 min - 225.5 O/U - 112 Tm Pts
Kemba Walker ($9200) vs. MIL - 36 min - 234.5 O/U - 114.75 Tm Pts
Chris Paul ($8500: GTD) @WAS - 33 min - 224.5 O/U - 113.75 Tm Pts

The GTD in the NBA is the bane of every DFS player's existence. I go CP3 here if I know he's going to play. John Wall plays all star game quality defense and the Rockets have found their stride in the post-Melo era. Both Kemba and Kyrie feel like they're safe 40 fpts guys, but hard to determine 6x performance between them.

Value plays

Patty Mills ($3700) @CHI - 20 min - 214 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Tomas Satoransky ($4000) vs HOU - 23 min - 224.5 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts

If you're looking to punt a position (since Fanduel drops the lowest score) you could always do worse than Mills. With Pop's rotation he's almost guaranteed 18-22 min a game and has a chance for 7x performance. Satoransky becomes an automatic play for me if Wall is out. Bradley Beal's "everybody eats" occurred when Wall was out and Satoransky ran the offense more efficiently without the ball stopping every other possession. 

SG

There's some interesting matchups at the top of the SG market. Harden feels like a must start if CP3 sits another game. I've left out Victor Oladipo since he's GTD and facing the Jazz with a 207 O/U.

James Harden ($11700) @WAS - 36 min - 224.5 O/U - 113.75 Tm pts
DeMar DeRozan ($8900) @CHI - 35 min - 214 O/U - 110 Tm pts
Jrue Holiday ($8900) vs. BOS - 36 min - 225.5 O/U - 113.5 Tm pts
Zach LaVine ($8600) vs. SA - 36 min - 214 O/U - 104 Tm pts
Bradley Beal ($8200) vs HOU - 34 min - 224.5 O/U - 110.75 Tm pts

So many NBA DFS picks seem injury/rest contingent and SG does too. If CP3 is out; go Harden. If Wall is out; go Beal. If Anthony Davis is out; go Holiday. LaVine is one of the most consistent 4x players in the game, but the price point for he and DeRozan seems a little too steep with either Harden, Holiday, or Beal with extra usage due to injury.

Value plays

Marcus Smart ($4000) @NO - 25 min - 227.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Andre Iguodala ($4100) vs. ORL - 27 min - 214 O/U - 111 Tm pts
Alec Burks ($3500) vs. IND - 21 min - 208 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Eric Gordon ($5100) @WAS - 32 min - 223.5 O/U - 113 Tm pts

GTD here again. If CP3 is out, Gordon seems like a must play although ownership will be 50% or higher. I really like Burks for lineup construction and he feels like an automatic 5x tonight. Smart feels like the greatest chance at 7x or higher with the high O/U and Jaylen Brown being out.

SF

Huge price points for both Antetokounmpo and Durant, which makes it hard to predict 5x for either of them. Yet, SF gets pretty tricky after the top picks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12700) @CHA - 36 min - 234 O/U - 119.25 Tm pts
Kevin Durant ($11500) vs. ORL - 37 min - 214 O/U - 111 Tm pts

I'm leaning towards Antetokounmpo because of the high implied and total, but $1200 might get in the way of some of the roster construction. I've fading Nikola Mirotic ($7500) since Anthony Davis says he's going to play tonight. I can never convince myself to play Jabari Parker ($7500), but I he's been really consistent lately.

Value plays

Joe Ingles ($6000) vs. IND - 32 min - 208 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Rodney Hood ($5000) vs. MIN - 36 min - 215 O/U - 104.5

This is a departure from other projection sites, but with Donovan Mitchell out, I'm willing to bet there's more usage for Ingles and a 5x performance. Projection sites are on Hood for a 5x performance and with 36 projected minutes that seems likely.

PF

Seems like a high price point for Anthony Davis with a hip injury. Feels like either a 40 point or 70 point performance. Given that variety, probably some exposure in GPP.

Anthony Davis ($12600) vs. BOS - 35 min - 227.5 O/U - 114.75

Not a huge fan of LaMarcus Aldridge ($8500) late as his performance has wildly inconsistent lately. Aaron Gordon ($7800) also seems like a overpay with the amount of usage Nikola Vucevic has been getting.

Value plays

Marcus Morris ($5100) @NO - 33 min -227.5 O/U - 112.75 Tm pts
Markieff Morris ($4700) vs. HOU - 29 min - 223.5 O/U - 110.5 Tm pts

The Morris twins are the best values, but will have high ownership. I can see some roster constructions adding Jayson Tatum ($6800), Domantas Sabonis ($6900) due to usage, and Taj Gibson ($4100) due to price point.

C

Clint Capela is smoking and Vucevic had a 70 point game in his last contest, so I would expect large ownership for most.

Clint Capela ($8600) @WAS - 38 min - 223.5 O/U - 113 Tm pts
Nikola Vucevic ($9000) @GS - 33 min - 214 O/U - 103 Tm pts
Rudy Gobert ($8100) vs. IND - 33 min - 208 O/U - 106 Tm pts
Tristan Thompson ($6500) vs. MIN - 34 min - 215 O/U - 104.5 Tm pts

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10800) has a good matchup, but with Capela and Vucevic it just doesn't seem necessary to pay up, especially with Harden, Durant, and Antetokounmpo. Thompson is an interesting option as he's coming off of a 56 point performance.

Value plays

Brook Lopez ($5000) @CHA - 28 min - 234 O/U - 119.25
Aron Baynes ($3500) @NO - 18 min - 227.5 O/U - 112.75

Lopez is playing in the highest implied and total game and Baynes looks to get some consistent run against Julius Randle and the second units, which makes 5x possible for him and a solid roster construction option.

Good luck in tonight's slate!